Short-term oil price movements are mainly driven by news headlines related to Middle Eastern geopolitical developments. From a broader macro perspective, this can essentially be considered noise. What truly matters in the macro environment is the level and sustainability of oil prices. Even if a peace agreement is reached, energy prices will not immediately return to normal; there is usually a lag between supply chain adjustments and declines in energy costs. Oil prices have remained high for some time, exerting ongoing pressure on inflation.

U.S. diesel prices remain elevated at $5.40 per gallon, the highest since 2022. It remains to be seen whether these prices can decline sustainably if current geopolitical tensions ease. Therefore, rather than overreacting to short-term news, at least from a macro perspective, we should focus on oil price trends, because global monetary policy is not shaped by fleeting reactions but by regular patterns. Ultimately, markets are driven by monetary policy rather than news, which is why these short-term fluctuations are less significant for our macro judgments. $XBRUSD #特朗普释放停战信号