In the past few days, I've been looking at on-chain transfers, and many people, upon seeing "arbitrage contract volume" and "same time period," start to imagine conspiracies... I’ve since gotten used to breaking it down into paths: which exchange's hot wallet it came from, whether it passed through a relay address, and finally whether it ended up in a custody/making market/cross-chain bridge type of "public endpoint." To put it simply, many coincidences are just because everyone is on the same highway, not necessarily the same driver.

Recently, funding rates have also been quite extreme, with groups arguing whether to reverse or continue squeezing the bubble. I actually prefer to return to the level of "how the money actually moves" on-chain, which is at least more reliable than emotions. The information noise is too overwhelming, and my noise reduction strategy is one: only focus on three confirmed address clusters plus a time window, ignore other screenshots and rumors for now, and take it slow.