The likelihood of the FOMC 'freezing' is high... The direction of cryptocurrency depends on Powell's signals.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) are held eight times a year, with the benchmark interest rate decisions immediately announced afterward, along with messages from Chair Jerome Powell, which are considered representative events that intensify volatility in the cryptocurrency market.

Depending on how the committee interprets indicators such as prices and employment, the tone may be “hawkish” (tightening) or “dovish” (easing), which often immediately reflects in preferences for risk assets like Bitcoin (BTC).

Hawkish, Dovish, and Freeze: Market reactions under different scenarios

Typically, when interest rates rise due to a hawkish tone, liquidity conditions tighten, investors shift to defensive positions, and stocks and cryptocurrencies often face synchronized adjustments.

Conversely, when interest rates are lowered due to a dovish tone, financing burdens decrease, risk appetite recovers, and this often acts as a catalyst for cryptocurrency market rallies. However, a “freeze” in interest rates is generally seen as more likely to prolong existing trends rather than create new directions.

Next FOMC meeting scheduled for April 29… Market leans toward “freeze”

According to CME Group data, the next FOMC meeting will begin on April 29, 2026, local time, lasting two days, with a press conference planned after the meeting. The schedule has been announced months in advance, so compared to “surprise” moves, market pre-positioning often becomes the main variable.

Regarding market expectations, based on FedWatch data, the probability of the current interest rate (3.5%–3.75%) remaining “frozen” is as high as 99.5%, with overwhelming advantage. The chance of rate cuts is 0%, and rate hikes are 0.5%. Some analysts note that, if aligned with market consensus, the probability that the FOMC meeting itself will cause significant cryptocurrency market volatility is limited.

Focus beyond “interest rates” on other messages… watch the USD/KRW exchange rate too

However, even if interest rates remain unchanged, short-term volatility may increase based on Powell’s comments about the timing of future rate cuts, the possibility of inflation re-accelerating, and changes in economic slowdown assessments. This is because the market’s reaction to a “freeze” outcome is less sensitive than to forward guidance that extends to the next meeting.

Recently, the total market cap of cryptocurrencies has been mentioned as approximately $2.57 billion. Converted to Korean won at an exchange rate of 1 USD = 1,477.50 KRW, this amounts to about 3.7967 trillion KRW. Ultimately, how much clues about USD liquidity and risk asset sentiment emerge from this FOMC meeting—beyond the rate decision itself—will likely determine the next direction of the cryptocurrency market.

Article summary by TokenPost.ai

🔎 Market interpretation: The simultaneous announcement of the FOMC’s benchmark interest rate decision and Powell’s forward guidance (future rate path) is a core event that intensifies cryptocurrency volatility. Compared to the rate itself, changes in messages related to “future rate cuts/ tightening paths” determine risk asset (such as Bitcoin) preferences. For this meeting (April 29, 2026), based on FedWatch data, the probability of a “freeze” is as high as 99.5%. Compared to the outcome (freeze), the subtle tone of Powell’s speech is more likely to trigger volatility. 💡 Strategic points: Scenario check: If hawkish (tightening/ delay in rate cuts) comments are made, short-term adjustment risks increase; if dovish (implying rate cuts/economic concerns), market rallies may occur. In the consensus “freeze” zone, “unexpected” moves are less common, but if positioning is overly skewed, a single statement could cause sharp price swings, making leverage management crucial. Checklist: Whether Powell mentions “inflation re-acceleration,” changes in “economic slowdown” assessments, and emphasizes data dependence before the next meeting (employment, prices). Also monitor the exchange rate (KRW/USD): a strengthening dollar may affect perceived prices and sentiment in KRW terms, so domestic investors should consider exchange rate risk management. 📘 Terminology: FOMC: The Federal Open Market Committee, which meets eight times a year to decide on interest rates and monetary policy. Hawkish: A tone favoring rate hikes/tightening to curb inflation. Dovish: A tone favoring rate cuts/easing to stimulate the economy. Freeze: A decision to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged (usually interpreted as continuing current trends). Forward Guidance: Signals from the central bank about future policy directions (a core factor influencing market volatility). FedWatch: An indicator from CME Group estimating and providing probabilities of FOMC interest rate outcomes based on interest rate futures.

💡 Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q. Why does the FOMC have such a strong impact on cryptocurrency prices? The FOMC meeting simultaneously announces the “benchmark interest rate decision” and Powell’s speech hinting at future rate paths (forward guidance). When interest rates and liquidity outlooks change, preferences for risk assets like Bitcoin immediately shift, potentially increasing short-term volatility. Q. If this meeting “freezes” interest rates, will the market stabilize? Since a freeze is close to market consensus (99.5% probability), the impact based solely on the outcome may be limited. However, based on Powell’s comments about the timing of rate cuts, inflation re-acceleration, and economic slowdown, “even in a freeze scenario,” prices could still experience significant swings. Q. What should beginners focus on during the FOMC? It is recommended to monitor: ① Rate decision (hike/delay/freeze) ② Hints about “when the next rate cut might occur” in the press conference ③ Changes in assessments of inflation and employment ④ USD/KRW exchange rate trends. Especially, compared to the outcome, headlines from speech summaries may cause sharp rises or falls; avoiding excessive leverage is safer.

TP AI Notes: This article summary is generated based on TokenPost.ai’s language model. Key content may be omitted or inconsistent with actual facts.