#BTC reaches $70K, will it soon break the historical high? The deduction of the relationship between the interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve and the prices of virtual currencies such as Bitcoin:

1. Time Node
The interest rate cut expectation has two important time points: the Fed interest rate meetings on September 18 and November 7.
The US election time, November 5th voting day, unofficial results will be released on the night or the next day, and official results will be released at the end of the year.
2, interest rate cut data
Based on CME's data for the day, on September 18th, the probability of no rate cut is 30.6%, a rate cut of 2.5 basis points is 57.2%, and a rate cut of 5 basis points is 12%. The overall probability of a rate cut is 69.4%.
On November 7th, the probability of no interest rate cut is 17.8%, 46.5% for a 2.5 basis point cut, 30.6% for a 5 basis point cut, and 5% for a 7.5 basis point cut. The overall probability of an interest rate cut is 82.4%.
3、Interest Rate Reduction Deduction
Considering the situation of the US election, if the interest rate is lowered two days before the election in November, it will be a favourable information. If the interest rate is lowered in November, it will have a positive impact. During the election, the financial market may experience a dump, causing market fluctuations and impacting the election results.
If interest rates are cut in September, there will still be 2 months before the November election. Even if the US stock market dumps and pulls back, there will be enough time to digest the short-term bubble and ensure stable stock market performance during the election period.
4. Conclusion
Overall, the probability of a rate cut starting in September is the highest.
If this inference is true, then there is a potential favorable information for interest rate cuts in the financial markets in the three months from June to August, which is favorable for the US stock market and the encryption market.
Bitcoin is forming the trend of the primary uptrend, and after May, the encryption market will usher in a continuous rise, just slightly weaker in the third quarter.
The Bitcoin ecosystem is rising. The higher the price of Bitcoin, the greater the opportunity for the entire ecosystem. When institutions pump Bitcoin, retail investors who cannot afford Bitcoin will consider related ecosystems, which will further boost the relevant ecosystem.
#币圈观察员##BTC站上$70K，很快突破历史新高？