Data reveals the truth about pump.fun PvP: MemeToken has a graduation rate of 1.4%, with only 3% of users making over $1000 in profit.

Author: Karen, Foresight News

How is the real data on the pump.fun platform? What is the ‘graduation rate’ of Token? How many Tokens can reach a market cap of millions or tens of millions of dollars? What about the real profit situation of users? This article will reveal all these to you one by one.

Regarding the pump.fun platform, in short, Meme Token can be fairly launched on pump.fun, with no pre-sale and no team allocation. During the initial launch phase of the Token, these Tokens are traded along the bonding curve within the platform. Once the Token exceeds the crucial threshold of 69,000 USD Market Cap, 12,000 USD Liquidity will be deposited into Raydium and destroyed.

As for the costs, during the Meme Tokenissuance period, pump.fun platform will charge a 1% exchange fee to trading users, which will continue until the TokenMarket Cap reaches the threshold of 69,000 USD. For the creators of Token, before the platform policy adjustment (i.e. before early August), they need to pay about 0.02 SOL for creation fee, and after reaching a Market Cap of 69,000 USD, they need to pay 2 SOL for migration fee.

It is worth noting that since early August, pump.fun has introduced new rules and launched a free Token creation function, providing economic incentives for creators who successfully complete the bonding curve. Under the new rules, the cost of creating Tokens has shifted from creators to the first buyer of the Token, and creators who successfully complete the bonding curve will receive a reward of 0.5 SOL (approximately $80), with migration fees adjusted to 1.5 SOL.

By deploying 1.8 million Tokens through pump.fun, the “graduation rate” is only 1.4%

According to the Dune dashboard data provided by Hashed, the number of Tokens deployed on the pump.fun platform is close to 1.8 million. Despite the significant Fluctuation in the current market, the popularity of Meme Tokens has decreased significantly, but the Token deployment activities on the pump.fun platform have not decreased as a result, but continue.

Looking further, the Dune dashboard created by @evelyn233 shows that in the past month, over 20,000 tokens were deployed daily on pump.fun. However, among this large number, only a very small portion of tokens were successfully launched on Raydium (i.e., Market Cap exceeded $69,000, meeting the “graduation” criteria), approximately between 100 to 200. This means that the graduation rate of tokens on pump.fun in the near future is at a low level of 1% to 2%, and the proportion of tokens successfully “graduated” on the entire platform is as low as 1.4% to date. In addition, many tokens that have successfully “graduated” have not performed well in subsequent market performance, with Market Cap close to zero.

What does a graduation rate of 1.4% really mean? Comparing it to the admission rate of top universities in China, such as the 985 Project universities, the admission rate in Shanxi, Hebei, Hunan, Guangdong, and other provinces will be around 2% in 2023. From this, it can be seen that the difficulty of a Token on the pump.fun platform to successfully ‘graduate’ is evident.

In addition, at pump.fun, the developer who deployed the most Tokens created up to 3357 Tokens, but only 16 Tokens succeeded in “graduating”. There are a total of 10 developer Addresses that created more than 1000 Tokens. The Address that ranked fifth in total number of created Tokens created 1915 Tokens, but none of them have “graduated”.

Probability of a market cap of tens of millions of dollars is only one in a hundred thousand

The successful launch on Raydium does not necessarily mean that the Token’s market capitalization will perform well. By further observing the market performance of Tokens after migrating from pump.fun to Raydium, we can see that although some Tokens have successfully launched trading on Raydium, it is extremely rare for Tokens to cross the threshold of millions or tens of millions of dollars in market capitalization.

As of the time of writing, among the nearly 1.8 million Tokens deployed on the pump.fun platform, only 18 Tokens such as michi, DADDY, BILLY, MOTHER, SCF (Smoking Chicken Fish), TrumpAvega, AURA, SC (Shark Cat), etc., have successfully surpassed the $10 million mark in Market Cap, while the number of Tokens with a Market Cap exceeding $1 million is currently only 96.

These data indicate that the probability of TokenMarket Cap created on pump.fun exceeding 10 million US dollars is about one in a hundred thousand, while the probability of Market Cap exceeding 1 million US dollars is only about one in twenty thousand. These data reveal the highly competitive nature and low probability of success in the Token market.

The proportion of creating new Tokens through pump.fun is steadily increasing

The following figure shows the proportion of new tokens created through the pump.fun platform compared to other newly created tokens on the Solana network. It can be observed that the proportion of new tokens deployed by pump.fun shows a steady rise trend, reaching a ratio of 6:4 in the recent days.

The total cost on pump.fun has exceeded 0.1% of the total supply of SOL.

The total cost on pump.fun has reached 624,640 SOL, which currently accounts for more than 0.1% of the total supply of Solana, equivalent to approximately 90 million US dollars at the current market price. It is worth noting that pump.fun has only been launched for 7 months so far.

In addition, according to Lookonchain, pump.fun sold 222,073 SOL at an average price of $160 per account over the past 3 months, exchanging for 35.54 million USDC.

2.43 million users, with daily active users ranging from 50,000 to 70,000

@jhackworth’s Dune dashboard data shows that as of the latest statistics, pump.fun platform has attracted over 2.43 million users. In the past three months, the platform has maintained a high daily active user count of 50,000 to 70,000 on most days.

pump.fun has only 3% of users making over 1000 US dollars in profit

According to @adam_tehc’s statistics, if you make a profit of more than $1000, you can rank in the top 3% of the profit leaderboard.

If you earn over 10 million US dollars in profit on pump.fun, your profit ranking is in the top 6;

If you make over 1 million dollars in profit on pump.fun, your profit ranking is in the top 70 (accounting for 0.0028% of all Wallets).

If you earn over $100,000 in profit on pump.fun, your profit ranks in the top 924 (0.037% of all Wallets).

If you earn over $10,000 in profit on pump.fun, your profit ranking is in the top 11,936 (0.477% of all Wallets).

If you earn over $1000 profit on pump.fun, your profit ranking is 76,587 (3.061% of all Wallets).

Update: According to Lookonchain, the post about ‘0.477% of Wallet’s trading income on pump.fun exceeding $10,000’ is inaccurate. The Address ranked first on the leaderboard only traded a Meme Token called HP, earning only 4 SOL.

In conclusion, despite the relatively sluggish performance of the overall cryptocurrency market and a slight decline in the popularity of Solana, the user base and activity of pump.fun remain stable. Based on the existing data, pump.fun is expected to continue to generate stable revenue as long as it can maintain user activity.

However, we also need to be acutely aware that a series of unfavorable factors currently exist and cannot be ignored. Especially the extremely low ‘graduation rate’ of Token and the lackluster Market Caprise in the later stage, coupled with the unsatisfactory profit situation of users, these factors have already had a significant impact on the confidence of users. In the short to medium term, this confidence shake will directly affect the user retention rate and the attractiveness of new users to the platform in the short to medium term.