#BTC BTC'big dump', transaction fees 'ultra low', sharp decrease in trading volume, nobody using BTC? Bull Market is over

Imagine, a once congested highway suddenly becomes unobstructed, and drivers can reach their destinations quickly without paying exorbitant tolls. Some may wonder, “Is no one driving anymore?” But the truth might be that people have found more efficient alternative routes, or larger vehicles (such as freight trucks) are quietly entering, ready to transport vital goods.
Recently, a similar scene has unfolded on the BTC network: the on-chain transaction fees have dropped to nearly zero (bytes), and miners are almost providing the service for free. Many people see this as a signal of 'no one using BTC,' but historical data and market logic point to a completely different conclusion - this may be a key signal before the start of a bull market.
The truth about big dump fees: it's not that nobody uses them, but that they use them more cleverly
1. 'Cloverleaf Effect'
The BTC main chain is like a highway. When the fees are high, congestion is caused by a large number of small transactions (such as buying coffee) crowding the block space. But now, second-layer protocols like the Lightning Network have matured, and users' daily payments are shifting to these "fast lanes", while the main chain is left for large settlements.
Data reference: As of Q4 2024, the Lightning Network channel capacity has grown significantly from 1000BTC in 2021 to about 8000BTC, with a daily average transaction volume of over 2 million transactions, and the main chain only needs to settle the final result. (Data from the Internet)
Result: The number of transactions on the main chain has decreased, but the amount of single transactions (such as institutional transfers) has increased, naturally reducing the fees.
2. The chain reaction of the 'HODL' party's 'lying flat'
BTC long-term holders (HO often choose to stay silent and reduce on-chain operations in the early stages of a bull market.
According to data reference statistics, as of Q4 2024, more than 72% of BTC has not moved for at least one year, reaching a new high in proportion.
Logic: When most people choose to hoard coins, the demand for on-chain transfers shrinks, and miners can only accept low transaction fees to fill blocks.
3. The "efficiency revolution" of miners
Miners are no longer relying on transaction fees to survive, but instead are pursuing lower energy costs and higher computational efficiency.
Reference case: According to the 2024 data, miners in Texas, USA, use abandoned wind and solar power to mine, further reducing the cost to around $25,000 per BTC, even with zero transaction fees, still profitable through block rewards (3.125BTC after halving in April 2024).
History Repeats: Why Does the Price Always Skyrocket After a Big Dump of Fees?
The script after the 2016 halving
Fee: After being halved in July 2016, BTC fees decreased from $0.5 to $0.1, and the market was pessimistic.
Price: In the following two years, BTC surged from $650 to $20,000, an increase of over 30 times.
Key logic: Low transaction fees attract developers to improve the ecosystem (such as wallets, exchanges), paving the way for the Bull Market.
2.2020 Halving Copy and Paste
Fee: After the halving in May 2020, the fee dropped from $6 to $1, and many people thought of the 'BTC is dead' meme.
Price: Over the next 18 months, Bitcoin skyrocketed from $9,000 to $69,000, reaching a new all-time high.
Plot twist: Institutions use grayscale funds and other tools to raise funds off-chain, avoiding on-chain transactions pushing up fees. (There was no BTCETF at the time)
Signal for 2025: Same recipe, familiar taste
In April 2024, Bitcoin will undergo another halving, and now the low fees are similar to the high points in 2016 and 2020, and both cycles saw epic price surges. History doesn't simply repeat itself, but always rhymes. I will talk about the logic of Bitcoin's Bull Market separately later, but pure 'predictions' should not be used as investment reference.
Data Revealed: Why Low Transaction Fees are the 'Smoke Screen' of a Bull Market?
1. Dark flow of off-chain funds
Exchange BTC reserves hit a new low: As of early February 2025, the amount of BTC in exchange wallets has dropped to around 2 million coins (about 10% of the total supply), indicating that funds are flowing from the trading platform to cold wallets in preparation for long-term holding.
Futures open interest surges: In December 2024, the open interest of CMEBTC futures surpassed $15 billion, indicating that institutions are quietly building positions through derivatives.
On February 1st, the data showed that the open interest of BTC futures on the platform decreased by 4.79% in 24 hours. It is now reported at 177,300 BTC, equivalent to approximately 18.097 billion US dollars.
2. The 'Silent Operation' of Whales
Significant Increase in Large Transactions: On-chain data shows that the volume of transfers exceeding 1000BTC in a single transaction in 2024 increased by approximately 60% compared to 2023, but the number of transactions decreased, indicating that whales are accumulating rather than selling.
Case: Continuing to accumulate BTC in 2024, as of November 16, it and its subsidiaries collectively hold about 330,000 BTC, with a total cost of approximately $16.5 billion and an average purchase price of $49,874.
As of January 13, 2025, the total value of BTC held is approximately $41 billion, accounting for over 2% of the total BTC supply.
3. Retail investors have not yet awakened
Google Search Index: In December 2024, the search volume for the keyword 'BTC' has increased, but it is only about 40% of the peak in 2021, indicating that the public has not fully paid attention yet.
Pattern: Bull Market always starts when no one cares and ends in frenzy.
Ultimate logic: How to ignite Bull Market with low transaction fees?
1. Practical breakthrough: from "digital gold" to "global settlement layer"
Low fees allow BTC to meet two needs at the same time⬇️
Store of value: Hodlers continue to hold, viewing it as an inflation hedge asset.
Real-time settlement: Companies can use BTC for cross-border transfers (such as paying for Tesla car purchases), at a cost far lower than traditional banks.
Transfer of 1300 BTC worth $130 million, with a fee of only $1.5.
2. The "last threshold" for the entrance of the institution is removed
Traditional financial institutions used to hesitate due to congested BTC network and high transaction fees. Now, with low fees and mature La, regulatory barriers are cleared.
Reference case: According to data compiled by the media, BTCETFs issued by BlackRock and other issuers attracted a net inflow of approximately $32 billion in 2024.
3. Market Psychology: The Turning Point from Doubt to Consensus
When most people are bearish due to low fees, contrarian investors see opportunities.
Famous quote confirms: Buffett once said, "When others are fearful, I am greedy." The current market sentiment is similar to the panic after the halving in 2016.
Risk warning: the final test before the carnival
1. Short-term fluctuations are inevitable.
Low fees may come with price volatility, but the long-term trend will not change.
2. Regulatory Variables
If countries strengthen BTC trading supervision, it may suppress the upward trend, but cannot reverse its status as a non-sovereign asset.
3. Challenges of Technical Upgrades
If the demand on the chain increases in the future (such as a resurgence of inscription frenzy), transaction fees may rebound, but the maturity has greatly reduced this risk.
I'm sure everyone is excited and eagerly looking forward to it, and may smile and ask me:
I have to humbly say that this is just my personal opinion and is for reference only. Don't blindly enter the market, and don't go all-in directly. Don't add leverage futures just because of it.
With such low fees, if we don't analyze the investment logic and look at it from a technical perspective, this is indeed a rare golden window. Just like when humans explore space, Mars and Earth can only align at specific time windows to complete launch missions at the lowest energy cost.
The low transaction fee environment also provides a similar 'best timing' for the technical development of Bitcoin. During this window of opportunity, developers and researchers can experiment, test, and optimize with lower resource consumption, thereby driving technological progress.
Developers can concentrate on optimizing smart contracts, 2 solutions (such as Lightning Network, etc.), and the performance of other underlying protocols at this time. Also, it is a good time to conduct large-scale testing of new consensus mechanisms, privacy technologies (such as zero-knowledge proofs), or other innovative features.
Even various signature algorithms and technologies, such as signatures and sharding proposals, can be tested while BTC has such low transaction fees.
The roar in silence
BTC transaction fees are close to 0, just like the calm before the storm - on the surface, it is calm, but in reality, there is an undercurrent. When Layer2 quietly changes payment habits, when whales silently hoard chips, when institutions quietly lay out through off-exchange tools, a new Bull Market may be brewing.
History always reminds us that the pessimism of the masses is often synonymous with opportunity. This time, BTC may be repeating the past script, and low transaction fees are the first drumbeat before the opening. Don't be pessimistic, don't be anxious, don't panic, please remember that BTC will eventually become an absolute monopoly.
Once you become an absolute monopoly, you don't need to explain your existence.
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