As of March 21, 2025, the price of Bitcoin is assumed to fluctuate between $80,000 and $100,000 (based on recent trends), here is the analysis of possible downward support levels:

1. **Short-term support level**:
- **75,000 to 80,000 USD**: This is the bottom of the recent fluctuation range and may serve as the first psychological and technical support. If market sentiment weakens or selling pressure arises, this level may be tested.
- **68,000 to 70,000 USD**: If it breaks below the short-term support, this area corresponds to some key lows for 2024 and the 50-day moving average position, which may attract buying interest.
2. **Mid-term Support Level**:
- **55,000 to 60,000 USD**: This is an important retracement level after the halving in 2024, also close to the 200-day moving average (assuming the price does not significantly deviate from the current trend). Historically, this range has often served as strong mid-term support.
- **$45,000 to $50,000**: If the market enters a bear market or faces significant negative news (such as regulatory crackdowns or institutional sell-offs), this could be a deeper retracement target, close to the highs of 2023.
3. **Bottom in Extreme Cases**:
- **30,000 to 35,000 USD**: This is a strong support level near the low point of Bitcoin during the bear market of 2022. This level may be reached if the macro economy severely deteriorates (such as a global recession) or if the cryptocurrency market as a whole collapses, but extreme negative catalysts would be required.
- **Under $20,000**: Unless there is a systemic risk (such as a major security vulnerability or a global ban), the probability of falling to this level is relatively low in the current environment, as institutional holdings and market maturity have significantly increased.
Factors affecting the extent of the decline
- **On-chain data**: If long-term holders start to sell off, or if exchange balances increase significantly, it may exacerbate the downward trend.
- **Technical Analysis**: A break below key support levels (such as the 50-day or 200-day moving averages) may trigger stop-loss orders and a wave of liquidations, accelerating the downward price movement.
- **External Events**: Such as the US SEC strengthening regulation on cryptocurrencies, rising expectations of a global economic recession, or other black swan events, which may lead to panic selling.
Current Trend Observation
Assuming the current price of Bitcoin is in the range of 80,000 to 100,000, if it falls below 80,000 in the short term with increased trading volume, it may indicate support around 70,000; if it loses that level further, it may test the levels of 60,000 or even 50,000. However, if the decline is too rapid, oversold signals (RSI below 30) may trigger a rebound. #BTC