#2026年比特币行情展望 Bitcoin Breakthrough and Pullback Dual-Direction Trading Framework

Currently, $BTC's price action is diverging, mainly dependent on two probability scenarios.

【First Scenario: Direct Upward Breakthrough】

If the price can stabilize above $94,000 (judged by 30-minute K-line close), subsequent targets are between $95,000 to $97,500. However, this scenario only has approximately 40% probability, with the key being to observe trading volume. Breakthroughs on low volume are easily reversed, so volume is the true signal.

For entry, start with 30% position. Once it gains 1%, immediately move stop-loss to cost price to lock in, then if it gains another 2%, move stop-loss to 1% profit position. For safety, set stop-loss below $93,000 if it breaks below $94,000.

【Second Scenario: Small Pullback Accumulation】

This scenario has higher probability, approximately 60%. Price is likely to pull back to the support zone between $91,500 to $92,000. Rather than chasing highs, build positions in batches—first enter with 30% position, keeping remaining ammunition in reserve.

Once it stabilizes in this zone and shows a stop-fall signal (such as bottom formation patterns, reduced decline), increase to 60%. The target is to first reach between $93,000 to $94,000 (previous highs). Set stop-loss below $90,800, giving yourself breathing room.

The core principle is don't be greedy; position management is more important than getting the direction right.