Bitcoin faces three warning signals: on-chain, transaction, and macro factors suggest that the September "curse" may repeat.

Bitcoin price has been hovering above $110,000 for several days, but in the last week of September, selling pressure began to emerge. Multiple on-chain indicators and macroeconomic signals are sounding alarms, suggesting that the upward momentum of Bitcoin may be losing steam. These warning signals indicate that Bitcoin price may face downside risks again.

September "Curse" Reappears?

Historical data shows that September has always been regarded as the weakest month in the crypto market, with its "curse" lasting for over a decade. As September comes to a close, accompanied by an increasing number of negative signals, this pattern seems to be threatening to repeat itself.

On-chain signal: SOPR indicator shows that profitability is drying up.

Joao Wedson, founder and analyst of Alphractal, emphasized that the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) trend signal is flashing bearish signals.

· The SOPR indicator measures whether on-chain Bitcoin transactions are profitable or at a loss. A SOPR reading above 1 means that sellers are in a profitable state (selling BTC at a price higher than the purchase price), while a reading below 1 indicates that sellers are at a loss.

· Currently, the SOPR is still above 1, but is on a downward trend, indicating that the profitability of on-chain transactions is weakening.

· Historically, the red areas on the chart signify the peaks in Bitcoin prices, which have been evident across multiple historical cycles. Wedson explained that during these periods, investors often enter the market too late and accumulate BTC at inflated prices.

· Wedson also pointed out that the realized price for short-term holders (STH) is $111,400, very close to the current market level. Any behavior that falls below this threshold may trigger stop-loss sell orders. It is worth noting that in the last week of September, the price of Bitcoin briefly fell below this level.

Moreover, although the price of Bitcoin is higher than in past cycles, its Sharpe ratio is relatively weak, which means that its risk-adjusted returns and potential profits are lower.

Exchange Signal: Taker Buy/Sell Ratio has sharply decreased.

According to data from CryptoQuant, in recent weeks, the Taker Buy/Sell Ratio across all exchanges has fallen below 1. Its 30-day Simple Moving Average (SMA30) is also showing a downward trend.

The indicator shows that the current active selling volume (market sell orders) has exceeded the buying volume, reflecting the negative sentiment of traders. Historically, when this ratio remains below 1, Bitcoin often faces downward pressure, especially when the price approaches historical highs. This is a clear sign that bullish momentum is waning, and without new capital inflow, a price reversal may occur in the last week of September.

Macro Signals: US Dollar Index (DXY) rebounds

Since the recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, the Dollar Index (DXY) has rebounded from around 96.2 points to about 97.8 points. Some analysts warn that the negative correlation between DXY and BTC may resume, posing a downside risk to Bitcoin prices.

Analyst Killa outlined a broader scenario: if the DXY continues to recover, the Bitcoin price could reverse, just like it did in 2014, 2018, and 2021.

Conclusion

The three warning signals mentioned above—stemming from on-chain data, exchange trading behavior, and the macroeconomic environment—collectively reinforce Bitcoin's "September Curse." If historical patterns repeat, the last few days of this month may validate these bearish signals. These indicators remind investors that in the current market environment, cautious sentiment is rising, and they must closely monitor market dynamics and remain vigilant against potential risks.