Solana (SOL) price prediction: After a pullback from a depth of $240, can the key support level at $200 hold?

After a significant fall from the $240 area, the Solana price is testing a key breakout retest level. Although this drop has cleared a large number of excessive leveraged positions, it has failed to hold the critical support, putting long positions under severe strain. Currently, the SOL/BTC trading pair has broken below the key support area, intensifying the bearish pressure and raising concerns among market participants that the price may further fall towards $200. Nevertheless, on-chain liquidity data indicates that if long positions can decisively intervene, there is still a strong possibility of a rebound.

1. Price plummets, Solana faces severe test

The price of Solana experienced a significant fall in the 240 USD range, clearing a large number of excessive leveraged positions. This drop pushed the price down to about 214 USD, marking one of the most severe corrections in recent times. Caff's chart shows that momentum has clearly weakened, indicating that this is not just a minor pullback, but a decisive action aimed at washing out excess leverage.

Although some refer to it as a healthy pullback, the weakness displayed by SOL when trying to reclaim higher levels is evident. The price has fallen below the short-term moving average, indicating that recovery may take time unless buyers actively intervene. If the current area cannot be held, the price may further test the $200 level. The next few trading days will be crucial for long positions to re-establish control.

2. The SOL/BTC trading pair has fallen below key support.

The SOL/BTC trading pair has shown signs of cooling down after rising nearly 60% from the bottom. Analyst Cas Abbé pointed out that the 0.00195–0.00200 BTC region is a key support zone that may be retested. However, the current SOL/BTC exchange rate has fallen below this key range, indicating that bearish pressure is intensifying.

Although the fall below this area did not damage its broader structure, it may reset the upward momentum and provide a more solid bottom after a sharp rise. If buyers can successfully defend this support, SOL/BTC may attempt to rebound again and return to 0.00250 BTC or even higher. Regaining strength here will place the SOL/USDT trading pair in a more favorable position to withstand ongoing selling pressure.

3. Liquidity Analysis: Providing Possibilities for Rebound

The latest 24-hour heat map shows that during Solana's sharp fall from $240, most of the downward liquidity has been cleared. Since then, the price trend has stabilized, entering a narrower range. Currently visible liquidity clusters are mostly located above the current price. This lays the groundwork for upward price movement, as any upward push may naturally be attracted to these areas, with trapped shorts potentially fueling the rise.

With the cleaning up of most leveraged positions, the downward pressure on the market has eased. If buyers step in decisively, the upward liquidity may attract prices like a magnet, creating space for a rebound attempt towards higher resistance levels.

Conclusion

The recent fall of Solana from $240 to $214 demonstrates how quickly market sentiment can shift when leverage is cleared. This sharp pullback has focused attention on whether SOL can hold its breakout structure and defend the key diagonal support. Currently, both SOL and the SOL/BTC trading pair are facing severe challenges. If long positions can successfully hold the newly tested low, it could signal a reset of the trend, providing room for the price to rebound to $230 and above. However, if not, the price will open the pathway to $200, further weakening short-term momentum. The market is at a crossroads, and liquidity data suggests that the upside targets remain attractive, but this entirely depends on whether buyers can decisively step in with conviction. The coming trading days are likely to set the tone for Solana's short-term direction.