Google's quantum computer is 13,000 times faster! The Willow processor threatens Bitcoin encryption.

Google quantum computer researchers have stated that they used the Willow quantum processor to map molecular structures at a speed 13,000 times faster than the current most powerful supercomputer, achieving the first verifiable quantum advantage. Experts warn that sufficiently powerful quantum computers could crack the ECDSA encryption algorithm, potentially rendering Bitcoin encryption obsolete as early as 2030.

Google Quantum Computer Willow Processor's Technical Breakthrough

(Source: Google)

Researchers at tech giant Google have stated that they can map molecular structures 13,000 times faster than the current most powerful “supercomputer,” achieving the first verifiable quantum advantage. According to Google, the experiment utilized Google's Willow quantum processor and “quantum echo,” a technique that uses target waves to create detailed images of objects.

The technology targets a single quantum bit (the basic unit of information storage in quantum computation) by sending precise signals to elicit a response. Google stated that the process is then reversed, allowing researchers to measure the “echoes” or signals that bounce back. The revolutionary aspect of this quantum echo technology lies in its ability to measure and describe the quantum state of matter with unprecedented accuracy.

The experiment of Google's quantum computer is verifiable, meaning that running the experiment on any quantum computer system with the same technical specifications used by the researchers can yield the same results. This verifiability is a key standard for scientific breakthroughs, elevating Google's achievements from theoretical breakthroughs to practically applicable technology.

What does a 13,000-fold speed enhancement mean? Assuming a supercomputer takes 13,000 seconds (about 3.6 hours) to complete a computation, the Willow processor can do it in just 1 second. This exponential performance boost is not only valuable in academic research but could also have revolutionary impacts in fields such as drug development, materials science, and cryptography. However, for the cryptocurrency domain, this technological advancement also brings unprecedented threats.

Four technical features of Google's quantum computer Willow processor:

Speed Advantage: 13,000 times faster than supercomputers, achieving a milestone in quantum advantage.

Quantum Echo Technology: Precisely measuring qubit responses to achieve molecular-level imaging.

Verifiability: Experimental results can be reproduced in other quantum systems, ensuring scientific rigor.

Practical Progress: Moving from theoretical research to practical application, shortening the commercialization timeline.

The Survival Threat of Quantum Computers to Bitcoin Encryption

(Source: Nature)

A sufficiently powerful quantum computer could crack the encryption algorithms used in cryptocurrencies, which are also employed to protect sensitive information in banking, healthcare, and military applications. Encryption is a core element in enabling digital assets and peer-to-peer finance. Breakthroughs in Google's quantum computer have made this threat more tangible than theoretical.

Quantum computers can render the Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA), which is the encryption algorithm used to generate the public Bitcoin address and private key pair. According to experts, it is expected to become obsolete as early as 2030. David Carvalho, founder and chief scientist of Naoris decentralized network security protocol, stated: “This is the single greatest threat Bitcoin has faced since the global financial crisis.”

Carvalho added that Bitcoin and other decentralized protocols face a collective action problem, where the community opts to discuss theoretical solutions rather than implement known solutions as quickly as possible. This delay could leave the entire encryption ecosystem unprepared when quantum threats truly arrive. ECDSA is the core security mechanism of mainstream cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum, based on a mathematical puzzle: deriving a private key from a public key is nearly impossible on traditional computers. However, the Shor algorithm used by quantum computers can effectively solve this problem.

According to an anonymous tech report, YouTuber Mental Outlaw claims that Google's quantum computer is not yet capable of breaking encryption standards. Mental Outlaw stated that the length of modern encryption keys ranges from 2048 bits to 4096 bits, while current quantum computers can only break keys of about 22 bits or shorter. From 22 bits to 2048 bits, there is approximately a 93-fold exponential gap, meaning that Google's current quantum computer is still a long way from posing a real threat to Bitcoin.

This gap provides a valuable time window. The crypto community has about 5 to 10 years to upgrade to quantum-resistant encryption algorithms. The problem is that this upgrade requires coordinated action across the entire network, including modifying protocols, updating wallet software, and migrating existing assets, among other complex processes. The highly decentralized network of Bitcoin has a slow decision-making process that requires broad consensus, making rapid upgrades extremely challenging.

Post-Quantum Cryptography Standards and the 2035 Roadmap

However, investors and companies are seeking to address this issue by urging the adoption of post-quantum cryptography standards before sufficiently powerful quantum computers emerge. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) received a comment letter in September outlining a roadmap for quantum-resistant encryption standards by 2035. This roadmap provides a clear timeline and action plan to guide the cryptocurrency industry's quantum defense.

Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC) refers to encryption algorithms that can resist attacks from quantum computers. The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has announced the first batch of post-quantum cryptography standards in 2024, including algorithms such as CRYSTALS-Kyber (key encapsulation) and CRYSTALS-Dilithium (digital signature). These algorithms are based on different mathematical problems that even quantum computers cannot efficiently break.

For Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, migrating to post-quantum encryption requires several steps. The first is to develop and test new signature algorithms to ensure their security and efficiency. The second is to modify protocols to support the new algorithms, which requires network upgrades (such as Bitcoin's soft forks or hard forks). The third is user migration; all holders need to transfer their assets from old addresses to new addresses using the new algorithms. The fourth is ecosystem adaptation; all infrastructure, including wallets, exchanges, payment processors, etc., needs to be updated.

The complexity of this process should not be underestimated. Major upgrades in Bitcoin's history, such as SegWit and Taproot, have gone through years of discussion and implementation. The scale and importance of the quantum resistance upgrade far exceed these historical upgrades, and it may require more time and broader coordination. Although the roadmap for 2035 seems distant, considering the decision-making speed of the encryption community, time is not on our side.

From an investment perspective, breakthroughs in Google's quantum computing will not have a direct impact on Bitcoin prices in the short term, as the technological gap remains significant. However, long-term investors should pay attention to cryptocurrency projects' plans to address quantum threats. Projects that have already begun researching or implementing post-quantum encryption may have a competitive advantage in the future. In contrast, projects that completely ignore this issue may face systemic risks when the quantum threat truly arrives.

For Bitcoin holders, there is no need to panic at the moment, but attention should be paid to the discussions within the Bitcoin developer community regarding quantum resistance upgrades. Once the upgrade plan is confirmed and begins to be implemented, holders will need to timely migrate their assets to new addresses. Assets that are not migrated in time may face the risk of being stolen when quantum computers truly pose a threat.

From a broader perspective, Google's breakthrough in quantum computing is an important milestone in human technological progress. It not only threatens existing encryption systems but will also bring revolutionary advancements in fields such as drug development, climate modeling, and artificial intelligence. What the encryption community needs to do is embrace this technological advancement and proactively upgrade its defense systems, rather than resist or deny the existence of quantum threats.