Gate Research Institute: BTC Rebound｜Monad Mainnet will launch on November 24

Summary

1. BTC's technical rebound is hindered, and the short-term trend remains weak; ETH's rebound lacks strength, with the rebound space restricted by short-term moving averages.
2. Balancer released a preliminary report on the attack incident, where a rounding logic error was exploited.
3. The Monad mainnet will launch on November 24, and the MON token claim window has closed.
4. BTC spot ETF fund flow is positive, and market sentiment sees a brief recovery.
5. The total market capitalization of cryptocurrency spot trading has rebounded to $3.45 trillion, and market sentiment has stabilized temporarily.

Market Interpretation

Market Commentary

• BTC Market —— In the past week, BTC has experienced a sharp rebound after a continuous decline. The price rebounded to around 103,000 USD after hitting a local low of 98,500 USD on November 4, but the overall trend remains in a downward channel. Short-term indicators are all in a bearish arrangement, and during the rebound, it failed to effectively break through the MA5 resistance level, indicating that upward momentum is still insufficient. Trading volume slightly increased during the rebound phase, but its sustainability is limited, and the willingness for capital inflow is weak. The MACD dual lines are still below the zero axis; although the green bars are gradually narrowing, indicating a weakening of bearish momentum, a golden cross signal has not yet formed. Overall, BTC is currently in a short-term correction phase. If it fails to break through the 105,000–107,000 USD range with increased volume, the rebound is unlikely to turn into a trend reversal. Support below remains focused on the 100,000 USD and previous low of 98,951 USD range.
• ETH Market —— ETH experienced a “bottoming out and rebounding” trend in the past week as well. The price quickly rebounded to around $3,400 after dipping to about $3,056 at the beginning of November, showing clear signs of halting the decline in the short term. However, from a technical structure perspective, ETH remains constrained by short-term moving averages, with the MA5 and MA10 continuing to decline and forming a bearish divergence, indicating that the rebound is of a corrective nature rather than a trend reversal. Although trading volume temporarily increased, there has been no significant continuation afterward, and buying momentum is relatively weak. In terms of the MACD indicator, the dual lines are below the zero axis, the green bars have shortened but have not turned red, showing that bearish momentum is slowing but has not fully turned bullish. Overall, if ETH cannot effectively break through the $3,500–$3,700 range and stabilize above the MA10, there remains a risk of retesting the $3,200–$3,050 support. The short-term trend is leaning towards consolidation, and market sentiment remains cautious.
• Altcoins - This week, the overall cryptocurrency market has shown a pattern of rebounding from the bottom, with BTC and ETH leading the rise, and funds flowing back into privacy and infrastructure technology sectors.
• Stablecoins - The total market capitalization of stablecoins is $313.8 billion, a slight decrease of 0.35% compared to the previous day. The overall trading volume has dropped to approximately $179.3 billion, down about 38.6%, indicating a slowdown in short-term market liquidity.
• Gas Fee —— This week, the Gas fee on the Ethereum network has decreased. As of November 6, the average Gas fee for the day was 0.315 Gwei.

Popular Tokens

According to CoinGecko data, this week, sectors such as privacy and infrastructure have shown a significant upward trend, with increases of 74.8% and 39.4% respectively over the past 7 days. Below is an analysis of representative popular tokens within each sector and the reasons for their rise.

RAIL Railgun (+30.6%, circulating market cap $221 million)

According to CoinGecko market data, the current price of the RAIL token is $3.86, up 30.6% in the last 24 hours. RAILGUN is a DeFi protocol focused on privacy protection, designed to provide a “complete privacy layer” for on-chain transactions, enabling anonymous execution of token transfers, DEX trading, vault deposits, and liquidity provision. The project implements a “privacy trading pool” through zero-knowledge proof technology, allowing users to engage in decentralized interactions while maintaining self-custody.

Recently, the RAILGUN token has seen a significant increase, mainly driven by two factors: first, the protocol's privacy transaction volume has repeatedly reached new highs, attracting market attention to the protocol's revenue and token use cases; second, the team announced the “Mech Accounts” plan, further expanding RAILGUN's privacy scope, allowing more on-chain operations (including DEX interactions and staking activities) to be completed in a private environment. As on-chain capital flow and privacy computing demand grow in tandem, RAILGUN is gradually becoming the core infrastructure of the privacy DeFi sector, and the market generally expects its token value to have further upside potential.

DCR Decred (+19.89%, circulating market cap $713 million)

According to Gate's market data, the current price of the DCR token is $42.098, with a 19.89% increase in the last 24 hours. Decred is a decentralized public chain project focused on on-chain governance and privacy protection, aiming to achieve an “autonomous network without centralized authority.” The project employs a hybrid consensus mechanism (PoW+PoS), combining voting governance and a treasury system, allowing token holders to directly participate in protocol upgrades, fund allocation, and parameter adjustments.

Recently, the price of DCR has rebounded strongly, mainly driven by multiple positive factors. First, the official team has continuously released updates, emphasizing that Decred has achieved a complete closed loop in on-chain governance and privacy mechanisms, validating the “feasibility of decentralized governance”; second, the community has heated discussions about viewing DCR as a “BTC alternative asset,” achieving flexible upgrades and long-term evolution through a voting system and treasury mechanism while maintaining a total supply cap of 21 million coins; third, Decred announced that it will soon expand the scope of governance, incorporating more on-chain operations (such as staking and privacy transactions) into governance authority. As the market re-focuses on narratives of “governance public chains” and “on-chain autonomy,” DCR has become a representative project in recent themes of privacy and governance.

ZK zkSync (+11.62%, circulating market cap 510 million USD)

According to Gate market data, the ZK token is currently priced at $0.06991, having risen approximately 11.62% in the last 24 hours. zkSync is a leading ZK Rollup scaling solution in the Ethereum ecosystem, dedicated to building “Incorruptible Financial Infrastructure.” The project uses Zero-Knowledge Proofs (ZK Proofs) to achieve high throughput and low-cost transaction verification, and is upgrading from a single-chain architecture to a multi-layered network to support interoperability between public and enterprise-level chains.

Recently, ZK tokens have risen sharply, primarily driven by several positive factors. First, zkSync released a token proposal “From Governance to Utility”, clarifying that ZK will be used for protocol fee payments and ecosystem incentives; second, ecosystem partner Memento announced the completion of the third RWA fund's on-chain tokenization, marking the formal large-scale on-chain integration of traditional financial funds; third, zkSync emphasized institutional-grade DeFi adoption at Chainlink SmartCon and announced a new technology called Atlas, which can achieve 15,000 TPS and a one-second finality, significantly enhancing inter-chain performance. Driven by this series of news, ZK's on-chain transaction fees grew by nearly 694% in the past 7 days, making it one of the strongest public chains in the recent Layer 2 sector.

Highlight Data

Vanish has launched a public beta version, injecting new modules for privacy trading and passive income into the Solana ecosystem.

The Solana ecosystem privacy trading project Vanish has announced the official launch of its public beta, allowing users to conduct instant privacy transactions of any Solana ecosystem token on its platform, effectively reducing the risk of on-chain transactions being tracked, copied, or front-run (MEV). Meanwhile, users holding SOL or other tokens in Vanish can not only achieve privacy storage of funds but also passively earn Silent Rewards from the platform's transaction fee sharing, creating an integrated tool between 'privacy protection + yield generation', which is attractive to users who wish to enhance fund privacy without leaving assets idle.

In terms of capital and ecology, Vanish completed a $1 million seed funding round in August this year, led by Colosseum, with participation from Solana Ventures, Pivot Global, and Solana co-founder toly, among others, demonstrating strong backing within the Solana ecosystem. This structure of equity and resources means that Vanish not only hopes to gain ecological support in technology and liquidity but also has the opportunity to become one of the representative projects of “privacy infrastructure” on Solana. If it can continue to iterate on product performance and asset support within a compliant framework, Vanish has the potential to cater to the privacy needs of more high-frequency traders, market makers, and high-net-worth users, driving further improvements in the Solana ecosystem in the dimension of “high performance + privacy protection.”

Balancer released a preliminary report on the attack incident, exploiting a rounding logic error.

Balancer disclosed in its preliminary incident report that the Balancer V2 Composable Stable Pools were attacked on multiple chains on November 4, affecting networks including Ethereum, Base, Avalanche, Polygon, and Arbitrum. The vulnerability originated from a rounding logic error in the scaling function of the EXACT_OUT trading path in the Batch Swap — when the scaling factor includes non-integer values (such as exchange rate parameters factored into the calculation), the system defaults to rounding down, allowing attackers to exploit this precision error to manipulate pool balances and withdraw funds. This incident only affected the Composable Stable Pools of Balancer V2, while Balancer V3 and other pool types were unaffected; the issue was concentrated in the computational functions of the older version architecture.

After the incident, the Balancer team quickly took response measures with security partners and the white hat community, including the Hypernative automatic suspension mechanism, asset freezing, and white hat intervention under the SEAL framework, effectively preventing the further spread of the vulnerability and recovering part of the assets. Among them, StakeWise has successfully recovered about 73.5% of the stolen osETH, and BitFinding along with the Base MEV bot team also assisted in recovering some funds. Currently, Balancer is conducting cross-chain tracking and fund recovery with security organizations such as SEAL and zeroShadow, and will publish the final losses and recovery results in a complete technical review report. This incident reveals the security risks of batch exchange and precision control logic, and highlights the importance of multi-party collaboration mechanisms in decentralized protocols when responding to complex attacks.

The Monad mainnet will launch on November 24, and the claim window for MON tokens has closed.

The Monad team plans to officially launch its brand new Layer 1 blockchain mainnet and native token MON on November 24. Before this launch, the Monad Foundation opened the token claim portal from mid-October to November 3, allowing eligible users to view the MON token distribution and complete wallet connections on the page; it was reported that the claim opening caused a decline in performance of partner wallet services due to overwhelming traffic, reflecting the market's attention to the project and the airdrop. Currently, the official has not disclosed the complete token economic model and specific distribution details, and the unlocking rhythm and long-term incentive structure of MON remain key points for future observation.

In terms of ecological layout, Monad plans to connect with leading decentralized applications such as Uniswap, Magic Eden, and OpenSea upon its mainnet launch, and support mainstream wallets like Backpack, MetaMask, and Rabby, among others, to reduce the migration barriers for users and developers. Combining its positioning of “compatible with Ethereum and performance benchmarked against Solana,” Monad is expected to carve out a niche in the intersection of DeFi, NFTs, and the new public chain narrative; however, before the complete token economy and incentive mechanisms are disclosed, how the project establishes differentiated advantages among numerous EVM-compatible public chains and attracts sustained liquidity and developer retention still depends on the actual performance and ecological support after the mainnet launch.

Focus of the Week

BTC spot ETF capital flow is positive, market sentiment experiences a brief recovery.

On November 5th, there was a significant inflow of funds into the Bitcoin spot ETF market, with a net inflow of approximately $239 million in a single day, reversing the previous three days of net outflows. Data shows that from October 31st to November 4th, the cumulative net outflow of BTC spot ETFs exceeded $900 million, marking the largest scale of continuous fund outflows in nearly two months, reflecting the market's risk aversion amid last week's sharp price drop and rising macro uncertainties.

This return flow is mainly driven by several leading ETFs, with some products showing a significant rebound in funds and active institutional buying. Analysis suggests that this influx of funds may be related to investors making low-position allocations after experiencing short-term volatility. Meanwhile, after BTC recently fell below key technical support levels (such as the 200-day moving average), signs of stabilization appeared on November 5, slightly improving overall market sentiment. Although the current net inflow is still insufficient to completely offset the previous outflow of funds, the warming of funds indicates a phase of recovery in market sentiment. If macro policy expectations stabilize and liquidity pressure on the dollar eases, BTC spot ETFs are expected to continue attracting incremental funds, providing some support for the year-end market.

CMC Altcoin Season Index has dropped to 24, indicating a cooling in market risk appetite.

Since October 31, the sentiment in the altcoin market has continued to weaken, with the altcoin season index dropping to 24, further declining from last week, indicating a gradual transition of the market from “Bitcoin season” to a defensive state. Meanwhile, the overall market capitalization of altcoins has performed poorly, reflecting investors' risk-averse orientation amid recent amplified volatility and increasing macro risks.

In terms of performance, only a few of the top 100 altcoins maintain positive returns, with ASTER (+1,190.6%), ZEC (+1,163.9%), and Mina (+441.6%) standing out, while most mainstream assets have limited gains or even retracements. The index trend indicates that since the end of October, the overall returns of altcoins have significantly declined, and liquidity is gradually concentrating towards BTC. Analysts believe that market risk appetite will still be constrained in the short term, and investors are more inclined to remain cautious or shift towards high-liquidity assets in a high-volatility environment.

The total market value of encrypted spot trading has rebounded to 3.45 trillion USD, and market sentiment has temporarily stabilized.

This week, the total market value of cryptocurrencies worldwide has rebounded to $3.45 trillion, an increase of 2.17% compared to the previous day, ending the continuous downward trend since the end of October. The market has shown signs of recovery after several days of selling pressure, with major cryptocurrencies driving an overall warming, where the rebound of Bitcoin and some highly liquid assets has prompted a return of short-term funds.

Despite the decline in market capitalization, the activity of spot trading has clearly increased. The average daily trading volume over the past 7 days has remained around $170 billion, reaching a peak during the period of November 4, indicating that bottom-fishing and short-term trading funds are gradually entering the market. Among mainstream trading platforms, the trading volume of leading institutions accounts for over 70% of the market share, with market liquidity mainly concentrated in large platform ecosystems; at the same time, some decentralized matching and automated market-making protocols maintain a stable trading proportion, and the overall DeFi liquidity pattern remains robust, indicating that funds maintain a balanced distribution between centralized and decentralized scenarios.

Financing Weekly Report

According to RootData, from October 31 to November 6, 2025, a total of 15 cryptocurrency and related projects announced the completion of financing or mergers and acquisitions, covering various sectors such as public chains, investment platforms, and consumption. The overall financing activity remains high, indicating that capital continues to invest in key directions such as public chains, DeFi, and asset tokenization. Below is a brief introduction to the top three projects ranked by financing scale this week:

Tharimmune

Announced on November 4th the completion of a $540 million financing round, which will be used to supplement working capital, support business operations, and advance the clinical research and development process of candidate drugs.

Tharimmune is a clinical-stage biotechnology company focused on the development of innovative therapies in the fields of immunology, inflammation, and oncology. This round of financing will be used to develop drugs that target immune modulation mechanisms, providing more effective and safer treatment options for patients with chronic diseases and cancer.

Ripple

Announced on November 5 that it has completed a $500 million financing to expand its institutional crypto asset service system, including services such as stablecoins, custody, brokerage, and corporate financial management.

Ripple is a blockchain fintech company headquartered in the United States, dedicated to building a global payment and settlement network based on distributed ledger technology. Its system supports instant cross-border settlements for both fiat currencies and cryptocurrencies, aiming to provide banks and financial institutions with secure, efficient, and low-cost solutions for global capital flow. After this round of financing, the company's valuation is approximately $40 billion, and it plans to further strengthen its global presence in cross-border payments and crypto financial services by deepening cooperation with traditional financial institutions and acquiring relevant infrastructure companies.

Lava

On November 4th, it was announced that they have completed a $200 million financing round. This round of financing will be used to further advance its Bitcoin self-custody loan products, the construction of global payment channels, and the expansion of immediate Bitcoin purchase services.

Lava is a fintech company that provides loans secured by Bitcoin, supports global remittances, and offers instant Bitcoin purchasing tools. Its features include reducing common risks found in traditional Bitcoin-backed loans, such as custody risk, initiation risk, repayment risk, and collateral management risk, through encryption technology. Additionally, its collateral security can be verified on-chain, and the loan process is automated, efficient, and reliable.

Focus Next Week

Token Unlock

According to data from Tokenomist, there will be a significant unlocking of important tokens in the market over the next 7 days (2025.11.7 - 2025.11.13). The top 3 unlock situations are as follows:

• LINEA will unlock tokens worth approximately $35.16 million in the next 7 days, accounting for 18% of the circulating supply.
• APT will unlock approximately $29.86 million in the next 7 days, accounting for 1.5% of the circulating supply.
• AVAX will unlock tokens worth approximately $27.59 million in the next 7 days, accounting for 0.4% of the circulating supply. <br> Reference Source

• Gate, https://www.gate.com/trade/BTC_USDT
• Gate, https://www.gate.com/trade/ETH_USDT
• Coinmarketcap, https://coinmarketcap.com/
• jin10, https://rili.jin10.com/
• Coinmarketcap, https://coinmarketcap.com/view/stablecoin/
• etherscan, https://etherscan.io/gastracker
• Coingecko, https://www.coingecko.com/en/categories
• X, https://x.com/vanishTrade/status/1985799479233073330
• X, https://x.com/Balancer/status/1986104426667401241
• X, https://x.com/monad/status/1986087005386842568
• Rootdata, https://www.rootdata.com/Fundraising
• Tokenomist, https://tokenomist.ai/

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