Depth | Eggs, new Bitcoin
At the border between the United States and Mexico, law enforcement officers are accustomed to seizing drugs and illegal immigrants, but recently they have faced an unexpected new challenge - smuggling eggs.
According to the Wall Street Journal, U.S. Customs and Border Protection intercepted a truck in El Paso, Texas, which not only contained 29 kilograms of methamphetamine but also surprisingly had a large quantity of smuggled eggs cleverly hidden in the seats and tires.
This is no longer an isolated case. Since the beginning of this year, around 90 "egg smugglers" have been arrested in El Paso alone. The number of smuggled egg cases intercepted at the U.S. border has increased by 36% compared to the same period last year, with a surge of more than double in the San Diego area.
In February of this year, a shocking "egg heist" occurred in Pennsylvania, where approximately 100,000 eggs were stolen from a supplier's delivery trailer, with a total value exceeding $40,000. A few days later, an egg theft also took place at a cafe in Seattle, where two male suspects stole 540 eggs.
Eggs, a common food on the dining table, have surprisingly become popular smuggled goods along with drugs at the border. This reflects the insane surge in egg prices in the United States – in February of this year, egg prices in the U.S. rose a staggering 58.8% year-on-year, with the average price for a dozen eggs nearing $8, and in some areas, it even skyrocketed to over $10. Meanwhile, in Mexico, the same eggs are priced at only one-third of the price in the U.S.
Due to reduced supply, supermarkets and grocery stores in many parts of the United States have posted notices limiting the purchase of eggs, and high-priced eggs in some stores have quickly sold out. A chicken rental company in New Hampshire called "Rent the Chicken" has rapidly gained popularity, allowing customers to spend about $600 to rent two hens for six months to ensure a stable supply of eggs.
Eggs are becoming the new "Bitcoin" under the tariff war.
Avian influenza and dual impact of policies
The root cause of this "egg crisis" can be traced back to the outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) at the end of 2024.
According to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, more than 6 million egg-laying hens in California have been forced to be culled to prevent the spread of the epidemic. Nationwide, avian influenza has affected almost all states, with Indiana and Ohio experiencing the most severe outbreaks.
A poultry farmer named John Parker expressed his heartbreak as he had to cull a total of 150,000 chickens, completely halting production, which will take at least six months to return to normal.
In addition to avian influenza, the "cage-free" policies implemented in some states in the United States have also exacerbated supply tensions. Currently, ten densely populated states, including California, Massachusetts, and Washington, have passed laws requiring that eggs can only come from cage-free environments. Although this farming method is more humane, it is also more susceptible to outbreaks. Agricultural analyst Brian Ernest pointed out, "Once these cage-free farms experience an outbreak, the speed of replenishing the supply becomes extremely slow."
At the same time, the demand for eggs among Americans continues to rise. The popularity of high-protein, low-carbohydrate diets, along with the emergence of chain restaurants serving breakfast all day, has driven an increase in egg consumption.
Under the dual pressure of supply and demand, the U.S. Department of Agriculture predicts that the egg shortage may persist throughout 2025, with the specific recovery time depending on the control of avian influenza and the recovery speed of the poultry industry.
One of the largest egg producers in the United States, publicly traded egg company Cal-Maine Foods, has seen a continuous surge in profits, with its stock price rising by about 50% over the past year.
"Tariff club" adds insult to injury
Faced with a tight domestic egg supply, the U.S. government has tried to seek external assistance. In March of this year, the U.S. inquired with European countries such as Denmark about the possibility of exporting eggs, but was met with polite refusals from multiple countries.
According to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the United States has imported over 1.6 million dozen eggs in the first two months of 2025. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins has publicly stated that the government plans to import eggs from countries such as Turkey and South Korea to alleviate domestic shortages.
However, the "reciprocal tariff" policy implemented by the Trump administration has exacerbated this emergency measure. Egg-exporting countries such as Turkey and South Korea are now facing high tariffs, significantly increasing import costs. U.S. Agriculture Secretary Rollins has warned that this move is likely to cause U.S. egg prices to rise again in the short term. Financial analysts warn that retailers and suppliers are likely to pass these rising costs onto American consumers who are already fatigued from high prices.
In the current trade war, eggs on the dining table have also been placed on the negotiation table of politicians.
Indonesian Minister of Food Coordination Zulkipli Hasan stated that these eggs could become a tool for negotiating with the United States over the 32% "reciprocal" tariff imposed on Indonesia, which has significant potential in supplying eggs to countries affected by the avian influenza epidemic, including the United States.
Eggs, new Bitcoin
Eggs in the United States have seemingly become a peculiar "hard currency."
In the egg shortage-stricken Silicon Valley, a tech company employee joked, "During the day, we discuss how to change the world with AI, yet we line up to buy a box of eggs, which are more valuable than the Bitcoin I hold."
Bitcoin is highly sought after due to its scarcity (the total number is constant at 21 million), while the price of eggs in the United States has also soared due to supply constraints, and the avian flu has culled millions of laying hens, which amounts to a "halving" event in the Bitcoin world, which suddenly reduced the market supply.
Interestingly, both eggs and Bitcoin have given rise to similar social phenomena.
In the world of Bitcoin, "搬砖" (arbitrage) is a well-known way to make money. Investors take advantage of price differences between different exchanges to buy and sell, profiting from the disparity. The most typical example is the so-called "泡菜溢价" (Kimchi Premium) — the price of Bitcoin on South Korean exchanges is often higher than the global average, sometimes reaching a difference of over 20%. Savvy traders buy Bitcoin in the international market and then sell it at a higher price on South Korean exchanges to make a profit. Although this arbitrage practice is theoretically simple, actual operation faces multiple obstacles such as regulation, capital flow restrictions, and trading fees.
Nowadays, the "egg smugglers" at the US-Mexico border are engaging in similar operations. They buy eggs in Mexico for about 1.7 dollars per dozen and sell them in the US for 8 dollars or even higher after crossing the border, making over 400% profit. This "egg moving" is akin to Bitcoin arbitrage, merely swapping digital assets for physical goods.
Bitcoin has "miners" mining, while a hen is a new mining machine. Many American families have started to "mine eggs" in their backyards, and a Meta employee was called a "real wealthy person" by colleagues for achieving "self-sufficiency in eggs" by raising chickens in their backyard.
Egg smugglers have a similar essence to early underground Bitcoin exchanges; both evade regulation and seek arbitrage opportunities created by price discrepancies. The only difference is that the value of Bitcoin is built on consensus, while the value of eggs stems from the most basic survival needs.
When the price of a regular egg reaches 6 yuan, we can't help but ask: In an era of persistent inflation, frequent black swan events, and broken supply chains, what will be the next "Bitcoin"? Will there be more everyday necessities that become new "hard currencies" due to supply shortages?
The answer may be affirmative, on April 9th at 12:01, the United States imposed a 104% tariff on Chinese products.
"As long as there is a 10% profit, it will be used everywhere; with 20%, it will become lively; with 50%, it will provoke active risk-taking; with 100%, it will make people disregard all laws; with 300%, it will make people unafraid of crime, even the danger of hanging."
Driven by interests, the future of the US-Mexico border may be filled with various Chinese goods.
This "egg crisis" may just be a microcosm of the new normal in the U.S. and even the global economy.
A new storm is about to emerge, and everything is just beginning.
