Are U.S. stocks still in a bear market after the big rally?

Yesterday, the S&P futures surged significantly, and many readers are concerned whether the previously outlined bear market scenario for U.S. stocks is still valid—has the trend reversed, or is it just a rebound?

Looking at the performance of the S&P index yesterday, although it gapped up into the current range, it did not break through the upper boundary of 6845 (the high on March 10). As long as it doesn’t break above 6845, the bear market scenario remains in effect.

The U.S. and Iran will hold their first round of talks on March 11. The future movement of the S&P is likely to depend heavily on the progress of these negotiations.

Scenario 1: If the talks are unsuccessful and the Strait of Hormuz cannot resume normal navigation for a long time, then the S&P is unlikely to break through 6845, and the bear market scenario remains valid.

If the talks go smoothly and the Strait of Hormuz resumes normal navigation in the short term, then the S&P is likely to continue rising and test the resistance at 6845:

Scenario 2: If it still cannot break through 6845, then the bear market scenario remains valid;

Scenario 3: If it breaks through 6845 but does not surpass the previous high, then the bear market is still ongoing, but the C-wave target needs to be adjusted upward, and the probability of falling below 6000 is relatively small;

Scenario 4: If it breaks the previous high, then there is no bear market—just a sideways correction. However, after breaking new highs, it is likely to pull back and test the March 30 low of 6317.

Personally, I am not very optimistic about the progress of the talks, so I believe the probabilities from high to low are: Scenario 1 > Scenario 3 > Scenario 2 > Scenario 4. #Gate广场四月发帖挑战