Gate Research: BTC and ETH Hold a Low-Range Consolidation as Dense Moving-Average Breakout Strategies Capture Structural Opportunities

BTC and ETH remain in a weak consolidation phase, with price levels trending lower and rebounds lacking sustainability. Periodic spikes in volatility indicate that market sentiment remains fragile and highly sensitive to key price levels. On the derivatives side, following the earlier deleveraging cycle, fresh capital has yet to return meaningfully, with open interest staying at relatively low levels; liquidation dynamics continue to be skewed toward long positions, suggesting that confidence has not fully recovered and that near-term risks of further consolidation or pullbacks persist. From a quantitative strategy perspective, moving-average trend breakout models demonstrate solid trend-capturing capability in assets such as DOGE, ADA, and SOL, though they may be constrained by signal lag during fast, one-sided market moves. In contrast, Gate Quantitative Fund centers on market-neutral arbitrage and hedging strategies, placing greater emphasis on drawdown control and return stability, making it more suitable as a long-term, conservative portfolio allocation.

Key Takeaways:

• Major assets remain weak as consolidation ranges continue to extend: Over the past two weeks, BTC and ETH have traded within post-pullback low ranges, with multiple rebound attempts failing and price centers continuing to drift lower. Volatility has expanded frequently, indicating heightened sensitivity to support and resistance levels and a risk environment that remains easily disrupted, with no clear stabilization signals yet emerging.
• Leverage positioning remains conservative as derivatives participation cools: Following the prior wave of deleveraging, open interest in BTC and ETH has failed to recover meaningfully, with limited new leveraged positioning. The derivatives market is characterized by low participation and low conviction, as capital largely remains on the sidelines rather than engaging in active positioning.
• Liquidation pressure is concentrated on the long side, constraining recovery: Recent liquidations have primarily occurred during price pullbacks, placing sustained pressure on long positions, while short liquidations have been sporadic and lacking continuity. This suggests that downside risk has not been fully flushed out and that the confidence repair process remains incomplete.
• Sentiment indicators oscillate, increasing directional uncertainty: Active long-short taker ratios fluctuate around neutral levels, while funding rates frequently cross the zero line, highlighting divergent expectations across market participants. The absence of a clear bullish consensus leaves price action more susceptible to short-term volatility shocks rather than sustained trend development.
• Dense moving-average breakout strategies focus on initiation points, while defensive strategies hedge uncertainty: In an environment lacking trend persistence, dense moving-average breakout strategies identify directional expansion following periods of tight moving-average compression, effectively capturing early-stage moves in assets such as DOGE, ADA, and SOL, albeit with inherent confirmation lag during extremely fast one-sided moves. In contrast, Gate Quantitative Fund operates with a market-neutral arbitrage and hedging framework, emphasizing stability and drawdown control, making it more suitable as a defensive quantitative allocation during periods of elevated uncertainty.

Discover more details today → Gate Research: BTC and ETH Hold a Low-Range Consolidation as Dense Moving-Average Breakout Strategies Capture Structural Opportunities

Gate Research is a comprehensive blockchain and cryptocurrency research platform that provides deep content for readers, including technical analysis, market insights, industry research, trend forecasting, and macroeconomic policy analysis.

Disclaimer

Investing in cryptocurrency markets involves high risk. Users are advised to conduct their own research and fully understand the nature of the assets and products before making any investment decisions. Gate is not responsible for any losses or damages arising from such decisions.

Gate Ekibi
26 Aralık 2025

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