Polymarket Obtains CFTC License Breakthrough: Prediction Market Officially Included in the U.S. Regulatory Framework

In November 2025, the decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket received a revised designation order from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), officially obtaining the operational qualification for exchanges in the United States. The platform will be able to directly accept U.S. brokers and clients, and connect to traditional financial market infrastructure through an intermediary trading model. This breakthrough regulatory approval opens a compliance pathway for the $100 billion prediction market. Following a $2 billion investment from ICE, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, Polymarket's valuation has soared to $9 billion, and it plans to issue its native token POLY. As of November 2025, Polymarket is in negotiations with investors seeking to raise a new round of financing at a valuation of $12 billion to $15 billion.

Regulatory Breakthrough: Interpretation of the Core Content of the CFTC Designation Order

The revised directive issued by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission essentially represents a comprehensive regulatory recognition of Polymarket's business model. This document allows this prediction platform, which originates from the field of Decentralization Finance, to operate as an “intermediary trading platform” while complying with the full set of regulatory requirements applicable to federal-level exchanges in the United States. This decision breaks down the regulatory barriers between TradFi and the crypto prediction market.

From the perspective of specific operational models, Polymarket will introduce an intermediary access mechanism, requiring users to trade through Futures Commission Merchants (FCMs) and utilize the infrastructure, custody, and reporting channels of traditional markets. This design not only ensures regulatory transparency but also retains the platform's core functions. It is worth noting that this has only been a short time since the platform received preliminary approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) two months ago, indicating that regulatory agencies are improving their approval efficiency for innovative businesses.

Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan emphasized in an official statement: “This approval allows us to operate with the maturity and transparency required by the U.S. regulatory framework.” His remarks reflect the platform's strong commitment to Compliance, while also suggesting that the prediction market is transitioning from a marginalized application to mainstream financial infrastructure. For prediction markets that have long been in a regulatory gray area, this approval is undoubtedly a milestone.

Evolution of Business Models: From Prediction Markets to Compliance Exchanges

After obtaining exchange qualifications, Polymarket's business model will undergo a fundamental transformation. The platform needs to establish enhanced monitoring systems, market supervision policies, clearing procedures, and regulatory capabilities under Section 16, which are completely consistent with traditional exchanges. Before officially returning to the U.S. market, the platform also plans to implement additional rules, policies, and processes applicable to intermediary trading.

Upgrading from a simple prediction market to a fully compliant exchange means that Polymarket will be able to directly connect with the U.S. broker network, greatly expanding its potential user base. Clients of traditional financial institutions can now participate in prediction market trading through familiar channels without worrying about regulatory uncertainty. This increase in accessibility could lead to an exponential growth in trading volume.

It is worth noting that Polymarket has not given up its core advantages in the process of compliance. The essence of the prediction market—allowing users to predict and trade on the outcomes of various events—will continue to be retained, but now it will operate in a fully transparent regulatory environment. This model not only meets the requirements of regulatory authorities for risk control but also maintains the unique appeal of the product, providing a compliance template for other DeFi projects.

Key Development Milestones of Polymarket

Regulatory Breakthrough: Obtained CFTC Revised Designation Order, Becoming an Intermediary Trading Platform

Financing history: In October, received a $2 billion investment from ICE, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange.

Current valuation: has reached 9 billion USD, planning to conduct a new round of financing with a valuation of 12 billion USD.

Technical preparation: Enhanced monitoring system, market supervision policies, and clearing procedures have been developed.

Token Plan: Confirm the launch of the native Token POLY

Time Planning: Expected to officially launch US operations in early 2024.

Market Impact Analysis: The Wave of Compliance in the Prediction Market

The successful compliance of Polymarket is likely to trigger a ripple effect in the prediction market sector. As the leader in this field, its regulatory breakthroughs set a precedent for the entire industry, and other similar platforms like Augur and Gnosis may accelerate their compliance processes. According to industry data, the global prediction market is expected to reach tens of billions of dollars by 2025, and compliance will unlock the largest segment of this market - the United States.

From an investment perspective, the compliance of prediction markets is attracting close attention from traditional financial giants. The $2 billion investment by ICE, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, in Polymarket is just the beginning, with more institutional funds likely to follow into this space. The platform plans to conduct a new round of financing at a valuation of $12 billion, which, if successful, will set a new record for valuations in the prediction market field, further validating the potential of this business model.

For ordinary users, the compliance of prediction markets means higher fund security and trading transparency. Through the FCM intermediary model, user funds will be protected by TradFi regulatory oversight, significantly reducing risk compared to trading directly on a Decentralization platform. At the same time, compliance may also lead to an increase in trading costs, which is the price to pay for enjoying regulatory protection.

Ecological Layout Outlook: POLY Token Economy and Platform Development Route

With the acquisition of exchange qualifications, the economic model design of the core element of the Polymarket ecosystem – the POLY Token – has become the focus of attention. Although the official details of the Token have not yet been released, based on the experience of similar platforms, POLY is likely to serve multiple functions such as governance, trading fee discounts, and staking rewards, forming a complete value capture mechanism.

From the perspective of the platform's development roadmap, Polymarket is likely to adopt a phased rollout strategy. In the initial stage, it may focus on relatively traditional markets such as political and financial event predictions, gradually expanding to broader fields like sports, entertainment, and technology. It is worth noting that after obtaining approval from the CFTC, the platform still needs to be cautious in its choice of event types, avoiding sensitive topics that may be considered gambling.

Compared to traditional prediction markets, Polymarket's competitive advantage lies in its first-mover compliance status and strong institutional support. The platform can leverage ICE's TradFi resources to quickly expand its user base, while maintaining the vitality of the crypto-native community through POLY tokens. This “traditional + crypto” hybrid model could become the standard configuration for future financial innovation projects.

For investors, what needs to be focused on is the value support logic of the POLY Token. Under the compliance framework, the token's value will be more directly linked to the platform's trading volume and profitability, rather than solely relying on community consensus. While this shift may reduce the token's price volatility, it also aligns it more closely with traditional finance's valuation models, attracting a broader investor base.

Regulatory Trend Analysis: CFTC's Inclusive Regulation of Crypto Innovation

The approval of Polymarket reflects the CFTC's increasingly open regulatory attitude towards crypto innovation. As the main derivatives regulatory agency in the United States, the CFTC is actively exploring how to incorporate decentralized financial applications into the existing regulatory framework, rather than simply prohibiting them. This pragmatic approach stands in stark contrast to the SEC's hardline stance and may influence the regulatory path choices for future crypto projects.

From a regulatory technology perspective, the CFTC's requirements for Polymarket reflect the principle of “same activities, same risks, same regulations.” Although prediction markets utilize blockchain technology, their functions are similar to those of traditional derivatives markets, thus similar regulatory standards apply. This substance-over-form regulatory approach provides clear compliance guidance for various crypto innovation projects.

It is important to note that the approval from the CFTC is not unconditional. Polymarket must establish a complete monitoring and compliance system to ensure fair and transparent trading, preventing market manipulation and fraud. Although these requirements increase operating costs, they also enhance the platform's credibility and long-term stability, which is beneficial for the healthy development of the ecosystem in the long run.

Looking ahead, the CFTC's approval of Polymarket may just be the beginning. As regulatory agencies gain a deeper understanding of blockchain technology, more types of DeFi applications may find compliant pathways. This gradual regulatory innovation not only benefits consumer protection but also provides room for genuinely valuable blockchain projects to develop, promoting a balance between technological innovation and risk control.

Signals of Industry Transformation: Acceleration of Integration Between TradFi and the Crypto Ecosystem

The regulatory breakthrough of Polymarket is yet another landmark event in the accelerated integration of TradFi and the crypto ecosystem. The heavy investment by ICE, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, indicates that traditional financial institutions no longer view crypto projects as a threat, but rather as complementary innovations that they are actively positioning themselves in. This shift in attitude may prompt more traditional institutions to follow suit, driving the crypto industry into a new growth cycle.

From the perspective of market structure, the compliance of Polymarket represents the emergence of a new hybrid model that combines the core functions of decentralized applications with the compliance framework of centralized regulation. This model retains the efficiency advantages of blockchain technology while addressing regulatory concerns, and it is likely to become the mainstream direction of financial innovation in the future. Other DeFi fields such as lending and derivatives trading may draw on similar paths.

The compliance of prediction markets has far-reaching significance for the entire cryptocurrency industry. It proves that blockchain applications can coexist harmoniously with the existing financial system under the proper framework, rather than being necessarily antagonistic. The formation of this consensus helps improve the industry's image, attract more mainstream users and capital participation, and drive technology from the margins to the center.

With Polymarket launching its operations in the United States, the prediction market will enter a new stage of development. Compliance not only expands the potential market size but also raises the industry entry barriers, and platforms with technological and regulatory first-mover advantages may quickly form monopolies. For investors and entrepreneurs, now is a critical moment to lay out the prediction market and related infrastructure, as this sector is expected to give rise to several heavyweight projects in the coming years.