XRP Price Prediction: XRP ETF Attracts Nearly $1 Billion, So Why Has the Token Price Fallen Into the "Fear Zone"?

The US spot XRP ETF has seen its assets under management (AUM) rapidly approach the $1 billion mark less than a month after launch, with cumulative net inflows reaching $881.25 million and not a single day of outflows, making it one of the fastest-growing crypto investment products. However, in stark contrast to strong institutional inflows, XRP’s market price remains under pressure, currently trading around $2.09 and down approximately 31% over the past two months. Market analytics platform Santiment shows that social sentiment around XRP has sharply turned negative, entering the “fear zone,” similar to the scenario at the end of November when sentiment bottomed out and then rebounded by 22%, suggesting the market may be nearing a sentiment-driven inflection point.

Milestone Approaching: How Did the XRP ETF Become a Rapid Money Magnet?

Since the first batch of products launched on November 14, US spot XRP ETFs have demonstrated astonishing fund-absorbing capability. According to SoSoValue, the latest statistics show total net inflows for this ETF series have reached $881.25 million, steadily moving toward the $1 billion milestone. Achieving this in less than 30 days puts it among the fastest-growing crypto investment products in US history. For comparison, the spot Solana ETF launched during the same period has accumulated over $600 million in assets, while the “big brothers” Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs have AUMs of roughly $58 billion and $13 billion, respectively.

This success is largely thanks to an outstanding debut. Canary Capital’s XRP ETF recorded over $59 million in trading volume and $245 million in net inflows on its first trading day, setting a strong opening record for crypto ETFs. Subsequently, giants such as Grayscale, Bitwise, and Franklin Templeton joined the fray, with Bitwise’s product also attracting more than $105 million early on. The diversity of product offerings and competition among institutions together injected vitality and liquidity into the market. Additionally, 21Shares’ spot XRP ETF has received SEC approval and is about to start trading, indicating that the channels for inflows are still expanding.

Even more intriguing is the attitude shift among traditional financial giants. Asset management giant Vanguard, previously conservative toward cryptocurrencies, has now announced that clients can trade spot crypto ETFs including XRP. This policy reversal directly opens the door to a huge pool of retail and institutional clients for the XRP ETF, bringing substantial potential incremental capital. Although companies like CoinShares have chosen to withdraw their XRP ETF applications, this mostly reflects specific strategic choices and has not diminished the overall momentum of product ecosystem expansion.

A Tale of Two Extremes: Intense Battle Between ETF Inflows and Market FUD

However, a puzzling contradiction is playing out: while ETF funds are pouring in, XRP’s price continues to slide, and the market is shrouded in fear, uncertainty, and doubt. According to Santiment’s latest sentiment readings, social commentary around XRP has skewed sharply negative, placing it in the platform-defined “fear zone.” This extreme pessimism is in stark contrast to the earlier balance of bullish and bearish views earlier this year.

This divergence highlights behavioral differences between two types of market participants. ETF inflows mainly reflect the actions of institutions and long-term, allocation-oriented investors, who may be optimistic about XRP’s long-term fundamentals (such as Ripple’s institutional business progress and XRP Ledger ecosystem development), and are positioning through compliant channels. In contrast, short-term price moves and social sentiment are often dominated by retail traders and leveraged players, who are more sensitive to macro risks, technical breakdowns, and short-term news. Against the backdrop of a broader crypto market pullback and tightening liquidity, panic selling by the latter has temporarily overwhelmed the orderly buying of the former.

History seems to be repeating itself. Santiment specifically points out that the current degree of extreme sentiment is similar to November 21. At that time, after entering a similar “fear zone,” XRP’s price rebounded sharply by 22% over the following three days. The analysis platform, based on contrarian logic that “markets often move against the crowd,” suggests that current extreme pessimism may be building up energy for a technical rebound or “short squeeze.” This provides investors with a key psychological reference: when even the most steadfast holders start to waver, a turning point may be near.

Product Innovation and Ecosystem Expansion: Dual Engines of Leveraged ETFs and Institutional Business

Despite low market sentiment, innovation and business expansion within the XRP ecosystem continue. This week, financial product providers REX Shares and Tuttle Capital jointly launched the T-REX 2X Long XRP Daily Target ETF. This ETF offers 200% daily leveraged exposure, meaning it aims to track twice the daily price performance of XRP. Such high-risk, high-volatility tools are mainly aimed at sophisticated, aggressive traders, and its launch marks the evolving complexity and diversification of XRP’s financial derivatives ecosystem to meet the needs of investors with different risk appetites.

Key XRP Market Developments and Data (Latest)

Spot ETF Performance

Assets under management (AUM): Approximately $881.25 million (approaching $1 billion)

Fund status: Continuous net inflows since launch, zero outflow days

Latest daily net inflow: $12.84 million

Daily trading volume: Around $26.74 million

Comparison: Solana ETF AUM over $600 million; Bitcoin/Ethereum ETF AUM at $58 billion / $13 billion, respectively

Market Price and Sentiment

Current price: Around $2.09

Recent performance: Down about 31% over the past two months; down about 4.5% on the day

Market sentiment (Santiment): Entered the “fear zone,” with negative social commentary dominating

Historical comparison: After similar sentiment on November 21, rebounded 22% in three days

New Products and Ecosystem

Leveraged product: 2x daily leverage XRP ETF launched

Traditional institutions: Vanguard has allowed trading of spot crypto ETFs (including XRP)

Ripple developments: Launched digital asset spot prime brokerage service, integrating acquisition of Hidden Road

On the business front, Ripple continues to deepen its institutional service capabilities. Last month, Ripple announced the launch of its digital asset spot prime brokerage service in the US. This business expansion closely follows its acquisition of multi-asset prime broker Hidden Road, which has now been integrated into Ripple Prime. This move combines the regulatory and operational structures of both parties, aiming to create a unified trading and custody platform for professional clients. This marks Ripple’s evolution from a cross-border payment solution provider to a comprehensive digital asset infrastructure provider for institutions, supporting its long-term ecosystem value and the utility narrative of XRP.

Market Outlook: The Tug-of-War Between Sentiment, Capital Flows, and Technicals

Looking ahead for XRP, the market will mainly be pulled by three key forces: sentiment bottom, institutional capital flows, and technicals. First, as mentioned above, extreme fear sentiment itself is an important contrarian indicator. If Santiment’s model proves correct again, a sentiment recovery could trigger an oversold rebound, with an initial target of the $2.20 to $2.35 area.

Second, the continuous inflow of ETF funds provides a solid foundation for price support and upward momentum. Nearly $1 billion in incremental capital is real buying power that is unlikely to exit quickly due to short-term price fluctuations. Once overall market risk appetite improves, the positions of this “smart money” will become a stable force driving prices higher. Analysts believe that if cross-border liquidity improves and stablecoin projects on the XRP Ledger attract more attention, XRP could still grind up to the $2.50 to $2.75 range.

Finally, technical recovery will take time. The price is still below its short-term moving averages and needs to break through and hold key resistance levels (such as $2.20 and the higher 50-day moving average) to confirm a reversal of the downtrend. In addition, the total crypto market cap is hovering around $3.22 trillion, and liquidity remains concentrated in top assets like Bitcoin, limiting the short-term explosive potential of large-cap altcoins like XRP. Cautious investor positioning and rapid liquidations by leveraged traders are also increasing market volatility.

The XRP market is presenting a classic financial drama: cold, hard ETF inflow data shares the stage with heated social media panic, long-term institutional positioning interwoven with short-term retail capitulation. Nearly $1 billion in uninterrupted net inflows is a silent but solid “capital iceberg” hidden beneath the surface, while the noisy FUD on social media creates turbulent but fleeting “waves of sentiment” above. History suggests that when the waves reach their peak, it is often the iceberg that asserts its power and alters the course. For XRP, the real test is whether Ripple’s steadily strengthening institutional business and the capital channel opened by ETFs can ultimately be transformed into a long-term value consensus strong enough to pierce the fog of the cycle. The current “fear zone” of short-term sentiment may well be a warning and an opportunity for those who believe that “data trumps noise.”