Bitcoin exchange supply nears five-year low, on-chain buying increases but institutions remain on the sidelines

Bitcoin has continued to face pressure in a month-long downtrend, once again failing to break through a key trendline. The lack of clear bullish catalysts in the macro market has left Bitcoin’s short-term outlook uncertain. However, on-chain data shows that investors are accelerating accumulation at lower levels.

According to Glassnode data, over the past week, more than 23,385 Bitcoins (worth over $2.15 billion) have been withdrawn from exchanges, pushing exchange reserves down to their lowest level since January 2021. Exchange outflows typically indicate an increase in long-term holding intentions, while selling pressure decreases, helping to support a potential rebound.

(Source: Glassnode)

The on-chain “trend accumulation score” is also strengthening, with small holders actively buying, and while large wallets are accumulating at a slower pace, they still show net inflows, indicating an overall weakening of selling pressure. However, hesitation among institutional investors remains a potential headwind. The lack of large-scale buying may make it difficult for the current retail-driven accumulation to translate into a sustained upward trend.

In terms of price, Bitcoin is currently trading near $92,047, still above the $91,521 support level but unable to break through the descending trendline. To change the current structure, Bitcoin would need to break above the $95,000 resistance level to potentially restart upward momentum toward $100,000.

If the market continues to lack strong buying interest, Bitcoin could fall below $89,800 and further retreat to the $86,822 area, intensifying short-term bearish sentiment. Overall, Bitcoin’s price is at a key inflection point, and capital flows will determine its future direction.