The market capitalization of Rune hits a new high, but why are my friends and I losing money?

Original | Odaily Planet Daily

Author | Golem

Today, the overall market capitalization of runes has reached a new high of $1.92 billion. With the recent recovery of the rune market, on-chain rune subscriptions have become more active, and many players have started paying attention to the primary market in hopes of obtaining Rune Golden Dog. However, the actual situation may be different from what is imagined. Despite the prosperity of the primary market, there are few people taking over new assets in the secondary market, and most of the funds are concentrated in a few top rune projects.

Next, Odaily Star Daily will reveal the overall situation of the rune track, the performance of new assets, and the strategy recommendations derived from a data perspective.

Matthew effect, the strong get stronger

According to Geniidata data, from the perspective of market capitalization, the market capitalization of the top three runes, DOG•GO•TO•THE•MOON, RSIC•GENESIS•RUNE, and PUPS•WORLD•PEACE, is approximately $920 million, $230 million, and $160 million, accounting for 70% of the total market capitalization of the rune track.

From the perspective of 24-hour trading volume, the total trading volume of Rune is currently approximately 14.58 million US dollars, while the token DOG•GO•TO•THE•MOON, ranked first in terms of market capitalization, has a 24-hour trading volume of approximately 7.64 million US dollars, accounting for over 50% of the total trading volume of Rune in the past 24 hours.

In summary, although the market capitalization of Rune is already $1.92 billion and the deployed number of Runes has reached 72,764, there is no widespread prosperity in the market. On the contrary, the Matthew Effect is intensifying - the top Rune projects are becoming stronger, occupying most of the funds and liquidity in the market, and there are no new Rune assets that have performed better than the leading ones to break the pattern.

Rune new issuance? The performance is also unsatisfactory.

When the leading token of a protocol in the Bitcoin ecosystem leads the rise, it will inevitably increase the enthusiasm of users to participate in on-chain new offerings. For example, in June last year, ORDI led the way in starting the BRC 20 craze, and because of the market’s recovery, new users and funds entered, with many cases of tokens quickly doubling shortly after being issued.

The airdropped runes of Runestone DOG•GO•TO•THE•MOON are undoubtedly the leading token in the Runes protocol, and the recent continuous increase in token prices has naturally sparked users’ enthusiasm for on-chain minting of runes assets. However, this round of frenzy for minting runes is somewhat different from BRC 20, and the on-chain minting assets’ performance is not very satisfactory? The table below records the profitability of the top 10 runes ranked by minting fees in the past 7 days.

As can be seen from the comprehensive analysis, among the top 10 runes with the highest minting fees in the past 7 days, only 3 of them have good IPO returns, while the performance of the other 7 is poor, with even a decline of over 70%.

Moreover, from the perspective of asset liquidity, as shown in the Geniidata chart below, in the past 30 days, the transactions of Bitcoin on-chain minting runes have far exceeded the transactions of buying and transferring runes. This further illustrates that most new rune assets actually face liquidity problems after minting, and there is a serious phenomenon of on-chain fund PVP without secondary assets to take over.

Strategy: It’s better to buy big ones than new ones

In the past week, although the market capitalization of the top runic symbols has exceeded 100 million, there have also been good gains. According to CoinGecko data, DOG•GO•TO•THE•MOON has increased by 118.6% in the past 7 days, and RSIC•GENESIS•RUNE has increased by 55.9%.

Although the odds of playing a new game at the rune on-chain level may be high, it is difficult to select the 30% of golden dogs from longest new projects without keen insight, strong analytical skills and the energy to keep an eye on the dynamics of the on-chain. Moreover, as analyzed above, the rune track is still longest of on-site capital PVP, and even if new players and funds enter the market, the priority may be the rune head project, rather than the new assets with small on-chain volume and short community development time.

In conclusion, instead of exhausting energy on new assets, it’s better to directly invest in top assets with large market value and strong consensus.