GregMiller

Strategic positioning vs. rising optimism in $BTC .
Market sentiment is improving, Fear & Greed is rising and funding rates have turned positive. Traders are leaning bullish.
But on-chain data tells a more cautious story.
When exchange addresses are excluded, whale balances are declining, and 100–1,000 $BTC holders (including ETFs) show the same trend.
With ETF AUM down to $67.6B, near June 2025 lows, bid support remains uncertain.
Sentiment can shift fast. On-chain signals matter more than ever.

For over a decade, $BTC followed a clear cycle:
four years up, one year down.
2025 broke that pattern, closing –6.28% despite strong highs.
Markets evolve. Cycles don’t disappear, they change.
What mattered before won’t always matter next.
2026 is the year where Bitcoin’s cycle matures and adoption quietly leads the market.

Happy 2026 🥂
Crypto in 2026 is no longer just hype.
It’s being used, built, and improved every day.
More people are adopting it.
Builders are shipping real products.
The focus is shifting from quick wins to long-term value.
Less noise. More progress.
Think long term. Stay patient. Build smart.

$BTC is often discussed in price terms, but purchasing power tells a clearer story.
This image compares how much gold and silver one BTC could buy over time.
Gold serves as a long-standing monetary hedge.
Silver carries both monetary and growing industrial utility.
BTC functions as digital monetary infrastructure...scarce, portable, and globally transferable.
The comparison highlights how each asset expresses value through a different utility.

Developer activity surged as builders kept shipping.
$ETH recorded its highest developer activity ever in Q4 2025, with 8.7M smart contracts deployed.
This wasn’t short-term speculation, it reflects sustained builder conviction.
Historically, rising contract deployments align with app growth, infra expansion, DeFi, stablecoins, and tokenized assets.

BREAKING: $27,150,000,000 in $BTC and $ETH options will expire today.
High volatility expected.

Christmas Eve, 3 years ago
A snapshot of the crypto market when $BTC was ~$16.8k and $ETH ~$1.2k.
Markets evolve, cycles repeat, and conviction is tested in silence.
The lesson remains timeless: think long-term, manage risk, and stay disciplined.

2025 has been brutal for crypto.
While silver (+130%), gold (+65%), and even equities posted solid gains, $BTC is down ~6%, $ETH ~12%, and altcoins nearly -42%.
Capital clearly rotated to hard assets and traditional markets.
Cycles change, but right now, crypto is the worst-performing asset class.

Bitcoin’s exchange supply keeps tightening.
Glassnode data shows $BTC balances dropping from ~2.98M to ~2.94M since mid-November, even as price chopped around.
Fewer coins on exchanges means lower immediate sell pressure, holders are staying put. Quiet confidence beneath the volatility.

Litecoin liquidity tells the story. Sellers took control after November volatility, and the $80 support eventually gave way.
Liquidity around ~$73 has now been swept, triggering a relief bounce.
If momentum holds, the next magnet sits around $82–$83. Until then, trend remains cautious, liquidity leads price.

Capital rotation spotted.
On-chain data shows a whale selling $178M worth of $BTC and rotating directly into 58,419 $ETH of equal value.
This isn’t random flow, it’s deliberate positioning.
Smart money is starting to rotate from Bitcoin into Ethereum.
Watch $ETH closely.

$USDT has settled $156B in transfers under $1,000, and the trend keeps climbing into 2025. The 7-day moving average now sits above $500M, showing real, high-frequency usage, not speculation.
In regions where banking is costly or inaccessible, $USDT is quietly becoming the default rail for remittances and daily payments.

Memecoin dominance has completely faded.
The chart shows a clear multi-month downtrend, with momentum now sitting at cycle lows.
Memecoin market is effectively dead for now.

In the last 24 hours, the market cleared out $512M in liquidations, hitting over 150K traders.
Longs absorbed most of the damage, and the biggest single wipeout was a $23.18M $BTC position on Hyperliquid.

🚨 Reminder
The FOMC rate-cut decision drops today at 2 PM ET, with markets pricing in an 88% chance of a 25 bps cut.
Then at 2:30 PM ET, Powell takes the stage.
Any hint toward QE or deeper cuts… and risk assets could explode upward.
Stay ready.

Whales are loading up on $ETH longs, and they’re doing it with conviction.
BitcoinOG (1011short), one of the most profitable traders with $105M+ in total PnL, is now holding 54,277 $ETH in longs (~$169M).
Meanwhile, the well-known Anti-CZ whale has pushed even further, going long on 62,156 $ETH (~$194M).

$BTC just broke $92,000 🚀

The Fear & Greed Index has been stuck at 21 for five straight weeks, just like the Q1 2025 stretch that preceded a strong move higher.
$BTC has been drifting around $84K–$90K, yet sentiment hasn’t collapsed into extreme fear. No panic, no capitulation.... just cautious anxiety.
With structural support already in place, this is the final piece of the puzzle.

OG $BTC holders (>5y) pulling back on selling.
STXO data shows a clear trend:
• 2021: 3,860 BTC/day
• Early 2025: 3,200 BTC/day
• Now: ~2,350 BTC/day
Each cycle, long-term holders become less reactive to price swings. One of the market's largest sources of selling pressure is easing.
Diamond hands getting stronger.