## What the ECB's Standstill Outlook Means for EUR/USD Trading in 2026
The central bank divergence narrative is back in focus. While the Federal Reserve has already delivered three rate cuts since September and signals more easing ahead, the European Central Bank remains motionless—holding its main refinancing rate at 2.15% since July and showing no urgency to move in either direction. This policy divergence is the primary driver of currency movement, but the outlook hinges on whether Europe's growth holds up and how quickly the rate gap between Washington and Frankfurt actually closes.
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The central bank divergence narrative is back in focus. While the Federal Reserve has already delivered three rate cuts since September and signals more easing ahead, the European Central Bank remains motionless—holding its main refinancing rate at 2.15% since July and showing no urgency to move in either direction. This policy divergence is the primary driver of currency movement, but the outlook hinges on whether Europe's growth holds up and how quickly the rate gap between Washington and Frankfurt actually closes.
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