Tiezhu

Age 2.3 Yıl

Peak Tier 2

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Tiezhu

5h ago

The feeling right now is just one thing: SaaS is impossible to die, it's just that it should be Skill as a Service instead.
If I were to recommend a Skill, I think superpowers comes first, otherwise you'll just keep reworking. No wonder it has 97.7K stars.

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Tiezhu

12h ago

Will there be rate cuts this year? The decision is no longer in the hands of the Federal Reserve, but with Iran. The war is entering a critical phase.
The FOMC meeting in the early morning hours and Powell's remarks were widely interpreted by the market as hawkish. But objectively speaking, it all comes down to: the economy is still holding up, employment still has hidden concerns; regarding inflation, there is worry that the Iran war could cause expectations to lose their anchor; and interest rates are at a slightly restrictive level.
If we put this together in simpler terms, it means: du

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Tiezhu

13h ago

The problem with connecting too many MCPs is that Tokens burn way too fast. If I use CLI, the workflow seems too long and not suitable for a newbie like me.
One's expensive, one's exhausting. Seriously asking—are there any unconventional tricks to reduce Token usage?

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Tiezhu

03-18 10:50

I've used it until now, and I don't see anything that Claude Code + Codex can't do but OpenClaw can.

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Tiezhu

03-17 08:20

Continuing coding, added more comprehensive volatility data.
The suggestions given seem to have some substance to them now.

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Tiezhu

03-16 11:46

This once again demonstrates:
1. The US had no expectations or contingency plans for the Strait of Hormuz being closed.
2. It further shows that Trump and the Capitol Hill elite are as incompetent as a neighborhood residents' committee, probably inferior to a luxury property management team. Trump has already played most of his cards, and the ultimate strategy of "winning" is likely about to be deployed.
3. The Middle Eastern princes are probably all reconsidering their positions. It turns out the protection fee they paid not only provided no protection, but they have to keep paying.
4. Trump'

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Tiezhu

03-12 12:08

According to Bloomberg's report, it is basically insider information being caught, with securities firms revealing the rights issue news to hedge funds. Generally, rights issue financing usually dilutes shares, so the stock tends to fall after the announcement, making short selling a relatively safe profit. Therefore, the HKMA is likely investigating insider trading, while the ICAC is cracking down on commercial bribery.

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Tiezhu

03-10 09:18

I find it hard to believe that Trump has truly stopped the war, and even harder to believe that Iran has any real capacity to retaliate. Sometimes chaos is also part of the strategy.
It's just that Iran is more complicated, and the consequences could far exceed expectations. This might be the reason why Trump is so confident in declaring the war over. Especially with Mohajer Taibeh Khamenei as a hardliner. Negotiating with such an opponent is not a good sign.
From Trump's perspective, although he is wavering, as a war of attrition, especially during the sensitive midterm election period, a

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Tiezhu

03-06 07:16

The Americans' oil prices are starting to rise steadily, and it's already much more expensive than the same period last year. So next, the CPI might look ugly.

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Tiezhu

03-05 14:33

Senior crude oil analyst Daniel Jones on SA has written a very detailed analysis of China's oil situation, which is quite interesting. The core points are:
1. The current impact is approximately affecting up to 1.9 million barrels of imports per day, with about 72 days of inventory buffer.
2. An extension of the conflict or further escalation of regional tensions could exacerbate China's economic slowdown, especially in unemployment rates.
3. The economic issues in the United States, with a recession almost imminent.

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Tiezhu

03-04 13:33

I combined the volatility of my main assets into a single chart with Gemini's help. Overall, the picture is quite clear.
1. Due to Iran issues, the market is pricing in high short-term risks, but across different maturities, the curve is nearly flat, at least indicating that everyone believes the current uncertainty won't disappear quickly.
2. Nasdaq volatility is higher than the S&P, and doubts about tech stocks are not over yet.
3. Pressure in the credit market continues to rise, not to mention the commodity market, where crude oil volatility has surged.
4. Looking at the bond market, safe-h

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Tiezhu

03-04 11:24

Breaking news!! Kraken has integrated with the Fed's payment system. Here's a detailed analysis:
1. According to WSJ reports, it is likely a simplified or restricted version of the Fed's main account access in the U.S. This payment system primarily refers to the Fedwire system, more information can be found on the Fed Financial Services website:
2. This payment system handles approximately $4 trillion daily. Large interbank transfers are mainly processed through Fedwire.
3. Kraken's licensed banking subsidiary has obtained main account eligibility, but in theory, it does not enjoy some of the

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Tiezhu

03-04 09:14

According to Bloomberg's report, the Korea KOSPI index has plummeted for two consecutive days, with one of the main reasons being that Korean investors' leverage has reached a record high.
Previously, due to the increased demand for storage chips driven by artificial intelligence, the Korean stock market began to surge. However, during this process, not only was trading crowded, but a bigger issue was that many retail investors were trading on margin, with an average leverage of about 3 times.
The continuous decline has already triggered liquidations. If the market continues to fall tomorr

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Tiezhu

03-04 02:58

Figure 1\ Clearly, the demand for the US dollar is rising. The dollar collapse theory is nonsense at the real war level (at this stage).
Figure 2\ The retail oil prices in the US are soaring, along with the surge in ISM. As a result, the 10-year government bond yields first fell below 4, then quickly rebounded. Inflation concerns and safe-haven worries coexist, but the former is more prominent.

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Tiezhu

03-03 07:01

This chart is quite alarming. Historically, the S&P 500 and FCF (Free Cash Flow) have been highly correlated. However, currently, the projected cash flows of the five major giants are estimated to plummet dramatically.

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Tiezhu

03-02 12:16

This is based on Morgan analysts' statistics on the impact of past wars on the stock market. It seems that markets tend to rise after the wars end. Will this time be different?
1. Based on current asset performance, most analysts agree that this conflict won't last too long. After all, following the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, several neighboring countries announced they would start increasing production in April.
2. With American strength, it’s not difficult to eliminate Hamedani. Why they didn’t do it earlier, I think it’s because they didn’t want to deal with the aftermath.
3. Gold ex

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Tiezhu

03-01 10:24

1. Lost some of my data sources, and had Agent help me organize the data. Organized by weekly data, I still think it has great value. After running smoothly, I will continue to share with everyone.
2. From the data, there are several key features:
1) Tech stocks underperform, small-cap stocks are relatively resilient; profit growth has slowed down; but long-term EPS remains optimistic, and overall valuations have slightly compressed.
2) Whether looking at VIX, CNN fear and greed index, or retail investor sentiment and professional investor exposure from AAII, risk appetite has clearly tightene

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Tiezhu

02-28 02:28

Claude Opus4.6 is incredibly powerful, truly outstanding.
The chart below shows the metrics analysis over the past few months that I provided via link, which it automatically analyzed for me, and it even provided its own key insights.

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Tiezhu

02-27 12:55

Just reviewed the ETFs with over 20% YTD performance this year, which are quite informative and basically show what the market is buying.
1. Alternative Energy
NLR VanEck Uranium and Nuclear ETF - Nuclear Energy
FAN First Trust Global Wind Energy ETF - Wind Power
2. Energy Sector
Most perform well, but two stand out significantly
PXJ Invesco Oil & Gas Services ETF - Oil & Gas Services
URA Global X Uranium ETF - Uranium
3. Industrial Infrastructure
Mostly positive returns, but one is far ahead
SEA US Global Sea to Sky Cargo ETF - Global Sea and Air Cargo. The largest holding here is COSCO

BTC-3%

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Tiezhu

02-26 11:55

The chart is from Bloomberg. In simple terms, market participants are offering higher premiums for downside protection. The peak in July 2024 corresponds to the closing of yen arbitrage trades.

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