Xamanap

BTC is hovering near historical bottoming zones.
price is slightly above realized price levels that have marked prior cycle lows, while sentiment and participation remain deeply depressed.
bear markets are where positioning happens, not where breakouts start, but where $BTC accumulation typically begins.

here we go again

buyer activity is starting to return to BTC.
30d volume delta has flipped from net sellers to buyers, signaling a shift from selling pressure to early demand.
still early, but if sustained, this rotation could support price and help $BTC break its range.

Iran conflict priced in.

fully equipped to cope with the bear market.

futures volume is now 5× larger than spot, 1.5-year high.
2025 volumes:
derivatives → $25.4T (+19.7% YoY)
spot → $6.99T (flat YoY)
crypto trading is becoming increasingly derivatives-driven.

BTC Supply in Loss is climbing toward 40–45%, past cycles, this zone showed up during major corrective phases.
true market bottoms typically form above ~50% supply in loss. market stress rising, but historically not full capitulation just yet.

$DXY up or down? which way western man?

oil up 60%+ YTD as Hormuz tensions escalate.
~20% of global oil exports pass through the strait.
~35% of seaborne oil.
supply shock → higher oil → inflation pressure.
historically, strong oil often shows up near BTC cycle tops. macro risk is creeping back.

these raised $1.2B, and at ATH reached combined $25B MC, now worth ~$230M
$KDA $4.4B - $3M
$SCR $273.3M - $8.5M
$BOBA $656.5M - $10.8M
$EVMOS $2.2B - $0.5M
$BLAST $491.5M $29.5M
$FLOW $5B - $58.6M
$CELO $2.7B - $47.2M
$MANTA $1B - $29.7M
$GLMR $3.5B - $13.3M
$XRD $4.7B - $27.8M
VC-funded ghost town.

currently > 50% of Polymarket volume isn’t real.
$337M daily volume:
• $94.7M from airdrop farmers farming dead markets
• $76.1M from bots flipping BTC bets every 15m
~$170M of volume with zero predictive intent.
all this fake volume is to attempt to game the Polymarket airdrop.

watched Badlands last night, 8/10. best one so far this year.

Bitcoin ETFs are sitting at their largest drawdown from cumulative ATH since launch.
BTC < $70K
ETF avg cost ≈ $79K
$8.9B+ outflows
IBIT alone shed 42K BTC from peak
heavy pressure… but flows are starting to stabilize, been looking quite green lately, ETF demand returning is key for a stronger base.

38% of alts are near ATL, worse than post-FTX.
that’s the biggest regression of this cycle.
liquidity thin. risk appetite gone. breadth washed.
ugly conditions… but historically, this is where asymmetry starts building.