金十整理：机构前瞻英国Ngân hàng trung ươngLãi suất决议（二）——Lãi suất大概率不变，QT步伐或加快，投票恐显得更鸽派

GoldenOctober2024

2024-09-19 06:45:52

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Goldman Sachs: Expected to maintain the Lãi suất at 5.0% with a voting ratio of 7-2. The expected reduction in APF will be 100 billion pounds. The continuous interest rate reduction from November to August next year will bring the Lãi suất to 3.00%, with a probability of 40%. 2. Danske Bank: Expected to maintain the status quo in September and December, with a 25 basis point reduction in November due to high service industry inflation and wage tăng lên. Expected to implement QT of 100 billion pounds again. The euro will slightly increase in the short term. 3. Barclays: Expected to maintain the Lãi suất with a voting ratio of 8-1, with a risk tendency of 6-3. The expected reduction in assets purchase tool (APF) will be 100 billion pounds. The Lãi suất will reach 3.75% by August 2025. 4. Fidelity Bank: Expected to maintain the Lãi suất at 5.0%. The recovery of the economy and the continuous pump of wages will keep the Bank of England stable on the path of interest rate reduction instead of accelerating it. Expected to reduce the Lãi suất by 25 basis points in November. 5. JPMorgan Chase: Expected to maintain the Lãi suất at 5.0%, even though the UK announced a series of weaker economic data last week, the economy is still firmly in an expansion state. The expected scale of QT plan will be expanded to 120 billion pounds. 6. BNP Paribas: Expected to maintain the Lãi suất and guidance with a voting result of 7-2. The expected pace of 100 billion pounds of QT for the whole year will remain unchanged, but there is a significant risk of increasing to 120 billion pounds. The Lãi suất will drop to 4.75% by the end of this year. 7. Canadian Imperial Commercial Bank: Expected to maintain the Lãi suất, and it will not be surprising for Ding Gula and Ramsden to support the interest rate reduction. The target for reducing APF is 100 billion pounds. Expected to reduce interest rates again in November, or continuously reduce interest rates in the first half of next year.

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