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布倫特原油價格衝到了119美元,暴漲25%,美股和美債卻開跌,日韓歐洲股市也有崩盤趨勢!
這是典型的 “通脹恐慌 + 地緣風險” 下的再定價,從歷史看這種股債雙殺都導致了比特幣的暴跌(如下圖2)。
2018、2020和2022三次雙殺,比特幣最少跌50%以上!
布倫特原油的價格區間,是全球經濟和金融市場的 “溫度計”(如下圖3),現在直接爆拉到119,說明供應危機、通脹失控。
可以說現在的反彈是美股開盤之前的逼空和誘多,以及周線的轉換的上影線,周三CPI、周五PCE還有下周的美聯儲利率決議,74000美元可能就是這輪反彈的頂部了,3月會看到5萬的比特幣和1400的$ETH !