Recent Thoughts

1. 76,000 probably isn't the top of this rebound, but my psychological price expectation has already been adjusted down by around 3,000 points compared to a month ago.
2. Discussing tops and bottoms is actually not very meaningful; discussing ranges is more meaningful. For example, above 77,000 is the top range for this rebound, and below 59,000 is the bottom range for the subsequent decline.
3. Value investing that combines fundamentals and macroeconomics will always outperform speculative trading that only looks at technicals and liquidity. The essence here is that the two have different thresholds.
4. It's not very meaningful to discuss the bear market bottom right now, even though we're quite clear that the bottom range should be in the 37,000-49,000 zone.
5. If we're looking for a bottom now, we're looking for the first-half bottom, which should be in the 52,000-56,000 range. What's fairly certain is that the first half shouldn't go below 49,000 (the low point of August 5, 2024).
6. This bear market has moved too fast, which is why many people didn't react to the late January to early February selloff. Currently, the probability of this bear market playing out 7 weekly-level structures is increasing. According to this projection, after exiting current long positions, there could be three more trades this year.
As reference, the 2018 bear market only had 3 structures, while the 2022 bear market had 5 structures. That is to say, crypto's current structure is becoming increasingly complex, making it impossible for retail traders to profit even if they understand cycles.
The reason I came to this conclusion earlier is that the 2019-2021 bull market only had 5 weekly-level structures; while the 2023-2025 bull market had 7 weekly-level structures.
If we estimate based on an average of 4 months (5 months of gains, 3 months of declines) to complete one weekly-level structure, the next bull market has the potential to play out 9 weekly-level structures.
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