The recent surge in ETH is like a big order about to take off for a certain big investor. He currently holds a position of over 7,100 ETH with a 25x leverage, totaling $22.3 million. From an opening price of 3005.8, he's already floating a profit of 975,000. Interestingly, his take-profit plan involves placing a limit sell order for 200 ETH between 3188.8 and 3200, just 48 points away from being triggered. In other words, as long as ETH rises a little more, this trade can lock in profits, and the remaining position depends on how he chooses to operate. If this trade concludes successfully, it might be his most comfortable trade in recent months. Now, it all depends on whether ETH can continue to perform well.

In mid-September, #ETH hit a yearly high of $4,700, 26.6 million ETH simultaneously chose to exit staking. This was a real supply shock. The results are clear: In just three and a half months, the market absorbed these 26 million ETH exits, ETH price dropped by 34% —— From $4,700 → $3,100. 👉 Selling pressure has been completely released. And now, the situation has completely reversed. Waiting to exit staking: only about 80,000 remaining Waiting to enter staking: over 1 million More importantly: Ethereum treasury company BitMNR (BMNR) staked 593,152 ETH in the last 8 days, directly pushing the staking queue higher. A simple summary of the current on-chain state: Exiting staking ≈ clearing out Entering staking ≈ surge Circulating supply is continuously being drained Three months ago was: High → large-scale unlock → price decline Now is: Low → large-scale locking → supply contraction Offense and defense have already shifted. Can ETH price rise? At least from the supply and demand structure— Not rising, and that seems a bit unreasonable 😂

Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs absorbed $646 million on the first trading day of 2026, with institutional account openings increasing by 200% year-over-year. What does this data truly reflect? **Collective Signal from Institutional Funds** Unlike retail traders, this influx of capital represents a systematic deployment by traditional financial institutions. The $646 million volume is comparable to a medium-sized allocation by large asset management firms, directly indicating that Wall Street’s mainstream players see the current phase as a window for crypto asset allocation. The reason institutions prefer spot ETFs over direct holdings is due to the product’s compliance and risk controllability—despite the Federal Reserve’s unclear stance on interest rate hikes, they are still willing to heavily allocate, demonstrating confidence in the subsequent market trend. **Dual Aspects of Market Sentiment** However, behind the apparent prosperity of the data, there are underlying disagreements. From on-chain data and futures positions, the current market shows clear bullish and bearish divergence: The bullish logic is straightforward—the legalization of spot ETFs means traditional capital with unlimited liquidity is entering the market, which will support the long-term upward movement of crypto prices. But bears also have their say: as traditional funds expand their positions, retail profit opportunities are inevitably squeezed, and the upcoming earnings season for listed companies combined with Federal Reserve policy meetings could easily trigger short-term volatility. **Phenomena to Watch Out For** Recently, there have been signs of speculation around "ETF concept stocks," including some token futures and leveraged products packaged as "ETF opportunities" for marketing. This pattern warrants caution—historically, when Bitcoin spot ETF applications were rejected, related tokens dropped over 20% in a single day, leaving a deep lesson. While institutional funds are indeed flowing in, the prudent approach is to base allocations on spot ETFs rather than derivatives for stability. In summary, this market movement is indeed a signal, but not a reason to go all-in right now. The significance of spot ETFs lies in providing long-term holders with a safer entry point, rather than being a new short-term trading trend.