JPMorgan Model: A key stock index shows the probability of a U.S. recession is nearing 80%

On April 9, Jin10 reported that JPMorgan stated that the probability of a recession being priced in by stocks closely related to the U.S. economy has skyrocketed to nearly 80%. Meanwhile, despite potential funding pressures worsening, credit product investors remain optimistic. According to JPMorgan’s market-based recession indicator dashboard, the Russell 2000 index, which was severely impacted in the recent dumping, currently reflects a recession probability of 79%. Other asset classes are also sending warnings: the S&P 500 index shows a recession probability of 62%, basic metals indicate a probability of 68%, and the 5-year U.S. Treasury corresponds to a probability of 54%. In contrast, the recession probability priced in by the investment-grade credit market is only 25%, compared to zero in November last year.