Crypto market dynamics: XRP stops falling and rebounds, BTC is expected to hit a new historical high.

XRP ends two consecutive falls, awaiting SEC’s key decision The price of XRP successfully halted its two-day downtrend on July 6 (last Sunday) (XRP price rebound), with an increase of 2.4%, closing at $2.2727. This XRP halt in decline is mainly attributed to investors’ anticipation of the latest developments in the Ripple case, especially the key announcement by the SEC regarding its upcoming appeal plan (SEC appeal plan).

The closed-door meeting on July 3 did not cause a stir, the meeting on July 10 has become the new focus

• On July 3, the SEC held its first closed-door meeting after Judge Analisa Torres rejected the SEC’s joint motion with Ripple regarding the settlement terms (seeking declaratory relief) and Ripple announced it would withdraw its cross-appeal.
• No announcement was made after the meeting to boost XRP demand. Analysts speculate that it may be due to the Independence Day holiday in the US, causing the SEC to delay the announcement (SEC delay announcement).
• If the vote was held at the meeting on July 3, the SEC may announce plans to withdraw the appeal on July 8 (Monday).
• The SEC’s silence has shifted investors’ focus to the SEC closed-door meeting on July 10, which is seen as a more likely point in time to discuss and vote on whether to withdraw the appeal against the Ripple case (expected SEC appeal vote).

Analysis of SEC Appeal Voting Prospects (Key to Ripple Case Settlement)

• The SEC previously voted to support lifting the ban on Ripple selling XRP to institutional investors and reduced the fine from $125 million to $50 million.
• As part of the settlement terms, the SEC may have also voted in favor of waiving the appeal.
• However, without a favorable indicative ruling, the SEC does not seem to have voted to withdraw the appeal. This means that the SEC must conduct a formal vote on this (SEC Appeal Decision Process).
• The only commissioner expected to possibly vote against is Caroline Crenshaw, as the settlement terms are favorable to XRP.
• If there is no commitment from the SEC to withdraw the appeal, Ripple is unlikely to unilaterally give up its cross-appeal (Conditions for Ripple’s Settlement with the SEC).

Potential benefits of the conclusion of the Ripple case The final settlement of the Ripple case will bring the following key confirmations:

1. Consolidate XRP programmatic sales ruling: Confirm that the relevant sales do not constitute a securities offering.
2. Clarify that XRP is not a security: Reiterate that XRP itself is not a security (XRP non-security attribute).
3. Confirm XRP Institutional Sales Compliance: Selling XRP to institutional investors by Ripple no longer violates U.S. securities laws (XRP Institutional Sales Compliance).

• The conclusion of this case will pave the way for the XRP spot ETF market and accelerate Ripple’s business expansion in the United States (XRP ETF prospects).

XRP Price Prediction: Keep an Eye on SEC Developments and ETF Progress (XRP Market Analysis)

• XRP outperformed the market on July 6th (the overall cryptocurrency market rose by 1.19%, with a total market cap of $3.33 trillion).
• Short-term XRP price trend (XRP short-term forecast) Highly dependent on:
  • Latest news on SEC appeal plans (SEC appeal headlines)
  • Progress on the US XRP Spot ETF (XRP ETF Update)
• Technical Analysis (XRP Price Target):
  • Bullish Scenario: If it breaks above the June 30 high of $2.3275, the bullish target could look up to the May high of $2.6553. A sustained breakthrough at this level may challenge $3 and the 2025 high of $3.3999 (XRP price target).
  • Bearish Scenario: If it falls below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), it may test the 200-day EMA. Increased selling pressure could test the support level at $1.9299 (XRP Key Support Level).
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Bitcoin (BTC) poised for a breakout: Progress on crypto legislation acts as a catalyst

Regulatory clarity boosts Bitcoin demand

• When XRP is led by the Ripple case, the significant progress towards crypto regulatory clarity has greatly boosted the demand for Bitcoin (BTC).
• The Senate Banking Committee will hold a hearing on crypto market structure on July 10 (Wednesday) in preparation for the key vote expected during the week of July 14 (Crypto Bill Week).
• Significance of Cryptocurrency Legislation: The United States has long lacked clear regulations for digital assets, leading the SEC to regulate through enforcement actions. Establishing a regulatory framework through legislation will eliminate the threat of improper enforcement actions in the future and promote the prosperity of the cryptocurrency market (Prospects for U.S. Cryptocurrency Regulation).

On-chain demand indicators bullish for BTC

• Charles Edwards of the digital asset hedge fund Capriole Investments noted: “Despite the movement of 80,000 BTC, the Bitcoin’s 'on-chain demand indicator (Apparent Demand) remains in bullish territory.”
• The indicator turned bullish on July 4, based on historical patterns, signaling a potential price breakout. Despite reports last week of BTC movement from the “Satoshi Era Wallet”, the indicator remains bullish.
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• Legislative Progress on Capitol Hill (Cryptocurrency Legislative Dynamics) will be a key driver for BTC and the entire market.

Bitcoin Price Outlook: Multiple Factors Intertwined (BTC Short-term Forecast)

• BTC rose by 0.86% on July 6, closing at $109,229.
• Short-term BTC price (Bitcoin market analysis) depends on:
  • Trade Policy Dynamics (China-US Trade News)
  • Legislative News (Progress of the Crypto Bill)
  • Federal Reserve Policy Signals (Fed Rate Expectations)
  • Spot ETF Capital Flow (Bitcoin ETF Capital Flow)
• Potential Scenario:
  • Bearish Scenario: Tariff hikes, legislative obstacles, hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, and outflows of ETF funds. Multiple factors combined may pull BTC towards the 50-day EMA, or even test the $100,000 level (BTC Downside Risk).
  • Bullish Scenario: Easing of trade frictions, bipartisan support for cryptocurrency legislation, dovish signals from the Federal Reserve, inflow of ETF funds. In this context, BTC is expected to challenge the historical high of $111,917 (BTC Upside Potential/Challenge ATH).
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Key Focus: The Key to Whether XRP and BTC Can Reach New Heights Again (Cryptocurrency Market Barometer)

Investors need to closely monitor the following key market drivers:

1. XRP Case Update: Has the SEC officially announced the withdrawal of the appeal? (Final Decision on SEC Appeal Plans)
2. Legislative Progress: What are the voting results and progress of key crypto bills like the “Market Structure Bill”? (Crypto Bill Voting Results)
3. US Trade Dynamics: What is the impact of Trump’s July 9 trade policy deadline? (Trump Trade Policy)
4. Federal Reserve Guidance: Are the policy signals leaning towards hawkish (interest rate hikes) or dovish (interest rate cuts)? (Fed Policy Direction)
5. ETF Fund Flow: The inflow/outflow trend of spot Bitcoin ETF is crucial for the balance of BTC supply and demand? (Bitcoin ETF Fund Flow Tracking)