Key trading data: The Fed is losing control of interest rates, and the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen to 5%.

BlockBeats news, on September 2, The Kobeissi Letter released the latest market analysis indicating that the Fed will cut interest rates for the first time in 2025, 15 days from now, but the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield is currently nearing 5.00%. As the market digests the impact of the Fed's rate cut, interest rates are rising. Currently, the possibility of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points on September 17 is 90%, and the market expects a 50 basis point reduction in interest rates in 2025, with the possibility of a cumulative 75 basis point cut this year even reaching 34%. However, today the U.S. Treasury yield soared, with the 30-year U.S. bond yield rebounding to 5%, a level that is the same as during the largest financial crisis in U.S. history in 2008. As the market prepares for rate cuts, interest rates are actually rising. The U.S. deficit spending has become severely out of control, and the Fed is losing control over interest rates, having issued more than $200 billion in bonds in just five weeks. We are at a stage where investors are simply unwilling to purchase U.S. government bonds at the current yields. The “term premium” on U.S. 10-year government bonds, which is the extra yield demanded by investors for holding long-term bonds, typically due to the “perceived risk” of holding these bonds, is nearing its highest level since 2014. Meanwhile, with only two weeks left until the rate cut, the U.S. core inflation rate has risen above 3% and is on an upward trend. With an annual inflation rate of 3%, the dollar will lose more than 25% of its purchasing power over the next 10 years. Since 2020, it has already lost about 25%, and inflation continues to rise. Two weeks from now, the Fed will cut rates and “blame” the weak labor market. The unemployment rate for young people aged 16 to 24 in the U.S. is as high as 10%. The labor market is weakening, inflation is rising, and stagflation has arrived.