Bitcoin Closes August in Red: Is Smart Money Leaving?

Bitcoin closed the month of August with a fall of 6.5%, closing below the zone $115,778 after four consecutive months of growth. This is also the worst monthly candle close since the "Liberation Day FUD", indicating that the market is entering a phase of real challenge. Whale Dumping Phase In the period from April to August, whales holding between 1,000–10,000 BTC accumulated a total of approximately 270,000 BTC, bringing their holdings to 3.62 million BTC by mid-August, just as the price of Bitcoin reached a local peak of $124,000.

But then, a record supply reversal occurred. The 30-day change index in green ( represents the net change over 30 days of the whale group ), which has dropped to its lowest level since 2022. As of now, this group has sold off more than 112,800 BTC in just one month — the strongest distribution since 2022. This shows that the 6.5% fall in August is not merely a technical adjustment, but in fact is smart money taking profits after a 50% increase since the April low at $82,000. Technical Support Still Fragile On a technical level, Bitcoin is lacking strength at the support zones: Since July, each monthly candle has closed below $110,000, indicating that demand is not strong enough to counteract selling pressure. Although BTC set a new ATH of $123,000 in July and retested it in August, no sustainable breakout has been maintained. This reflects that smart money is no longer interested in chasing prices at the peak zone, making it unlikely for BTC to enter a clean price discovery phase in September — unless the Federal Reserve (Fed) takes a loosening policy action at the upcoming FOMC meeting in just 10 days (.

September Outlook: Bearish More Than Bullish With the current context, $110,000 is just a temporary zone of support and not the true bottom. The fact that whales are withdrawing liquidity and staying out of the market makes it likely that the scenario in September will continue to be negative: Scenario 1: Bitcoin enters a prolonged accumulation phase, trading sideways around $105k – $115k. Scenario 2: If selling pressure continues, it is highly likely that BTC will break the $110k support, opening up a deeper adjustment zone before the market can return to a new growth phase. Conclusion Smart money has sent a clear signal: they are no longer chasing prices at the peak. With the macro context still unclear and the Fed not easing, the Bitcoin market may face another phase of consolidation or breakdown before returning to the price discovery race.