XRP is deeply mired in difficulties in September, but October may bring a turnaround: Can the approval of the ETF and favourable information in politics reverse the downturn and hit new highs?

XRP faced a brutal fall at the beginning of this week, dropping to its lowest point since July 12, marking five consecutive days of decline. Despite favourable information from the macroeconomic and regulatory fronts, a strengthening dollar and persistent inflation remain a resistance. However, the market is looking towards October, when the final decision deadline for the spot XRP ETF and Congress's initiative to include crypto assets in 401(k) retirement plans could create a "perfect storm" for XRP, potentially triggering a strong rebound in price.

1. September 'Blue' Melancholy: XRP Price Continues to Fall

XRP faced a brutal start at the beginning of this week, briefly plummeting to an intraday low of $2.6935, the lowest level since July 12. Despite some favourable information, the current downward trend has not been reversed, continuing a five-day losing streak. It is noteworthy that XRP has been in a rebound since the Federal Reserve's rate cut on September 17. Although the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) economic forecasts indicate two further rate cuts in October and December, persistent inflation challenges the Fed's dovish rate path.

The strengthening of the US dollar presents a complex situation for XRP and the broader Crypto Assets market. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond has risen for four consecutive trading days, supporting the rebound of the dollar index (DXY) from a low of 95.804 on September 17. Although there has been a slight pullback recently, the DXY remains at a high near 97.2980.

Despite a 2.73% increase so far this month, XRP's five consecutive days of decline put it at risk of a consecutive monthly fall. Although the SEC and Ripple have withdrawn their appeals and settled the SEC vs. Ripple case, the coin still fell by 8.14% in August.

2. October Dawn: ETF and Macroeconomic Favourable Information Catalysts

Despite the losses on Monday, favourable information is brewing in the market. October could be a historic moment for XRP, as the final decision deadline for the Spot ETF is approaching. The Spot ETF applications for XRP from 21Shares, Bitwise, Canary Capital, CoinShares, Franklin Templeton, Grayscale, and WisdomTree are awaiting a decision from the SEC. Except for Franklin Templeton, the final decision deadlines for other ETF issuers are between October 18 and October 25. The SEC may approve all seven Spot ETFs on October 18 to avoid giving certain issuers a "first mover" advantage.

It is worth noting that there are rumors in the market that BlackRock may plan to submit an application for the iShares XRP Trust, but BlackRock has clearly denied this news, indicating that the rumor is false.

The launch of the XRP Spot ETF market may coincide with a surge in retail demand for alternative assets. On September 22, Republican members of the U.S. House Financial Services Committee, chaired by Congressman French Hill, sent a letter to SEC Chairman Paul Atkins. Nine Republican lawmakers signed a letter to Chairman Atkins expressing their support for President Trump’s executive order on August 7 to "provide democratized access to alternative asset investment channels for 401(k) investors." The letter stated: "We encourage the SEC to provide swift assistance to the Secretary of Labor and make any necessary revisions to its current regulations and guidance." The lawmakers emphasized that crypto asset investments qualifying for 401(k) could have significant implications, stating: "We hope these actions will help the 90 million Americans currently restricted from investing in alternative assets achieve a decent and comfortable retirement."

Crypto Assets enter 401(k) retirement plans, further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and the approval of the XRP Spot ETF could create a "perfect storm" for the token. Nate Geraci, president of NovaDius Wealth Management, commented: "Currently, a record $7.7 trillion is parked in money market funds... with an average yield of 4.1%. If interest rates continue to decline, will this capital seek new homes? If so, where will it flow?"

3. Price Trend and Technical Analysis

After a fall of 0.09% on Sunday, XRP fell again by 4.06% on Monday, September 22, closing at $2.854. Accompanied by a downtrend in the market (-3.13%), five consecutive days of decline have brought XRP well below the key level of $3. Traders are paying attention to the following technical levels:

· Support levels: 2.8 USD and 2.5 USD.

· Resistance levels: historical highs of $3, $3.2, $3.335, and $3.66.

In the short term, several key price catalysts may drive price trends:

· The fund flow trend of XRP ETF.

· Spot ETF: The approval or delay of the XRP Spot ETF, as well as BlackRock's plans for the iShares XRP Trust application.

· The stance of blue-chip companies on using XRP as a treasury reserve asset.

· Regulatory Milestone: Ripple's application for a U.S. chartered bank license, the "Market Structure Act," and news related to SWIFT may also affect demand.

4. Bull and Bear Scenario Analysis and Key Variables

Whether XRP ultimately tests lower support levels or breaks through higher resistance levels will depend on the balance between capital inflows, regulatory developments, and institutional interest.

Bear Market Scenario

· BITW, GDLC, and XRPR have weak capital inflows, and BlackRock denies its iShares XRP Trust application plans.

· SEC rejects XRP Spot ETF application.

· Legislative setbacks or slow progress on crypto-friendly regulations.

· Blue-chip companies refuse to use XRP as a treasury reserve asset.

· The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) delays or denies Ripple's U.S. charter bank license.

· SWIFT maintains its global dominance, limiting Ripple's market access.

· These unfavorable events may push XRP below $2.8, exposing $2.5 as the next key support level.

Bull Market Scenario

· BITW, GDLC, and XRP recorded strong capital inflows.

· SEC approves XRP Spot ETF.

· Blue-chip companies are using XRP as a treasury reserve asset, and more payment platforms are adopting Ripple technology.

· Ripple obtained a charter banking license in the United States, and the Senate passed the "Market Structure Bill."

· Ripple erodes SWIFT's market share in the global remittance market.

· These catalysts may drive XRP towards 3 dollars. A breakthrough of 3 dollars could pave the way towards 3.2 dollars. If it can continuously break through 3.2 dollars, it may open the channel to 3.335 dollars.

Conclusion

The current price predicament of XRP reflects the dual pressures of macroeconomic headwinds and technical sell-offs. Although the performance in September has been frustrating, the report clearly depicts a potential key turning point in October. The nearing approval of the ETF, political support for cryptocurrency investment on Capitol Hill, and the potential large-scale capital rotation collectively form a strong bullish narrative. The future direction will depend on whether these long-term fundamental favourable information can overcome short-term market pessimism. If the SEC can grant the green light simultaneously for Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, and if political momentum makes substantial progress, XRP could indeed see a historic rebound. Conversely, if regulatory or legislative obstacles arise, it may face further downward price pressure. Therefore, the fate of XRP largely depends on whether the upcoming October can convert these potential catalysts into actual favourable information.