Is BlackRock secretly laying out an XRP ecosystem? The regulatory battle in October may determine the fate of Ripple.

Ripple (XRP) has shown weak market performance recently, falling to $2.83 on September 24, continuing a six-day downward trend. However, there are undercurrents in the market, as BlackRock and VanEck's tokenization plans bring new hope to the XRP ecosystem. Meanwhile, multiple regulatory decisions are approaching in October, which may completely change the future development path of XRP.

BlackRock and VanEck Tokenization Project: XRPL Gains Institutional-Level Recognition

On September 23, financial giants BlackRock and VanEck announced a significant move into the DeFi space, bringing key benefits to the XRP ecosystem. According to the announcement, BlackRock's US Dollar Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund (BUIDL) and VanEck's Treasury Fund (VBLL) will achieve tokenization through the Securitize platform and plan to launch the exchange functionality for RLUSD/XRPL.

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse welcomed this development, stating: "Enterprise-grade real-time on-chain liquidity is within reach. This is true utility."

This integration is significant for XRP holders:

· Provided top financial institutions' recognition of XRPL technology

· Enhanced the practicality of XRP as a medium for cross-asset transactions and international remittances.

· Introduce new institutional-grade application scenarios for the XRPL ecosystem

The Securitize platform will also be deeply integrated with the XRP Ledger (XRPL), which not only expands the application scope of XRPL but also brings new utility to the ecosystem. Analysts believe that this institutional-grade adoption could become an important support for the long-term value of XRP.

Washington Regulatory Storm: Market Structure Bill Delay Triggers Uncertainty

However, the positive news of tokenization has been overshadowed by regulatory uncertainty in Washington. According to Crypto America's host Eleanor Terrett, the market structure bill originally set to take effect on September 30 has been postponed, with a new target date possibly being the week of October 20.

"The Democrats have not yet provided feedback on the bill; they have expressed a desire to reach consensus on the process before negotiations on the details begin. The upcoming government shutdown will also make it nearly impossible to achieve the price increase on September 30," Terrett stated.

This delay has had a widespread impact on the cryptocurrency market:

· Increased uncertainty in the regulatory framework

· Extended the market's wait for clear regulatory guidance.

· May affect investors' confidence in cryptocurrency assets.

The "Market Structure Act" aims to provide a clear regulatory framework for the cryptocurrency industry, including key definitions for classifying crypto assets as commodities or securities. This is particularly important for XRP, which has long been at the center of regulatory disputes.

October - The Month of Fate: XRP Spot ETF Decision Approaches

It is worth noting that the week of October 20 coincides with the final decision deadline for multiple XRP spot ETF applications. The XRP ETF applications from Bitwise, Canary Capital, WisdomTree, and CoinShares will receive the final ruling from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) between October 23 and 25.

Although the delay of the market structure bill may not directly affect the SEC's decision, the ruling by Judge Analisa Torres in 2023 that XRP's programmatic sales do not meet the third prong of the Howey test has paved the way for the approval of the XRP spot ETF. The U.S. Court of Appeals denied the SEC's request to withdraw the appeal in August, further solidifying this legal position.

Technical Analysis: XRP is at a critical support level, future trends depend on multiple catalysts

(Source: Trading View)

From a technical perspective, XRP is currently at a key support level near $2.8, and traders are closely watching the following price levels:

Support levels: 2.8 dollars and 2.5 dollars

Resistance levels: $3, $3.2, $3.335, and the historical high of $3.66.

In the short term, the price trend of XRP will be influenced by multiple catalysts:

· ETF approval outlook: The SEC's decision on the XRP spot ETF, especially regarding the market's expectations for the BlackRock iShares XRP Trust application.

· Institutional Adoption: Will blue-chip companies incorporate XRP into their treasury reserve assets?

· Regulatory Milestone: Progress on Ripple's Application for a US Charter Bank License

· Market Structure Bill: Legislative Process and Its Impact on the Classification of Crypto Assets

Bullish and Bearish Scenario Analysis

According to the development of different catalysts, XRP may face two completely different market scenarios:

Bullish Scenario:

· ETF application approved, especially BlackRock submitted iShares XRP Trust application.

· Blue-chip companies will incorporate XRP into their treasury reserve assets.

· Ripple has obtained a U.S. charter bank license.

· The Senate passed the market structure bill, clarifying the regulatory status of XRP.

· These positive factors may drive XRP to break through the 3 dollar mark, further challenging the highs of 3.2 dollars and even 3.335 dollars.

Bearish Scenario:

· SEC rejects XRP spot ETF application

· Legislative process continues to be obstructed

Institutional investors remain cautious towards XRP.

· Regulatory uncertainty continues to loom over the market

Under these circumstances, XRP may fall below the support level of 2.8 USD and further test the key support of 2.5 USD.