XRP's two major upward paths: expected to rise to $9.6, long-term target $33! The 21 EMA support becomes key.

On September 24, 2025, XRP's price came under pressure again amid broader selling pressure in the crypto market, falling below the psychological level of $3 and currently trading around $2.86, with a 24-hour rise of 0.5%. Well-known analyst EGRAG Crypto emphasizes the importance of the 21-day EMA as historical support by referencing two-week charts dating back to 2014, predicting that XRP could rise by 1610% to $33 if it repeats the path of 2017, or increase by 414% to $9.6 if it replicates the 2021 pattern. In the short term, Casi Trades identifies a double bottom pattern at $2.70, expecting to test the $2.79 support before starting Wave 3, with targets of $4.00 to $4.40, but if it falls below $2.70, it may reset the trend. This outlook highlights XRP's long-term potential after regulatory clarity, but caution is needed for short-term consolidation and trading volume confirmation.

Historical Background: 21 EMA support drives XRP pump

The two-week chart shared by EGRAG Crypto, tracing back to 2014, highlights the decisive support role of the 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) during the XRP period. At the end of the 2017 bull market, XRP retested this support twice, laying the foundation for the subsequent explosion, recording a 1610% rise by December 2017, pushing the price to a high of $3.31 in January 2018.

The 2021 cycle was affected by the SEC lawsuit, with XRP falling below the 21 EMA in December 2020. However, once it closed above and retested the support, it delivered a strong rebound of 414%, reaching about $1.96 in April 2021. These historical patterns indicate that a retest of the 21 EMA often signals a significant upward leg. Coupled with the current improvement in liquidity and robust Trading Volume, XRP's technical foundation is solid. Analysts emphasize that such support is particularly reliable after the regulatory environment stabilizes, driving XRP's recovery from legal uncertainties.

XRP's Two Long-term Paths: Taking Off from the $1.9 Base Point

(XRP 2W chart | Source: TradingView)

The current setup is similar to the historical one. EGRAG pointed out that in June 2025, XRP will fall to $1.9 during its third retest of the 21 EMA, which could be another significant starting point for an upward leg. He identifies two possible outcomes: if it follows the 2017 path, the market could witness a 1610% surge, pushing the price to $33; if it repeats the 2021 pattern, a 414% rise points to $9.6, both based on the $1.9 mark.

Currently, XRP is still grappling with resistance at $3.31 (2017 peak), trading below $2.84. The strong trading volume during the retest period indicates that these areas are crucial for the long-term direction. This divergent path reflects XRP's resilience: in an optimistic scenario, a breakout could amplify its market cap to the trillion-dollar level, but it requires external catalysts such as global adoption of the Ripple payment network.

Short-term Price Dynamics: Double Bottom Formation Gaining Momentum Wave 3

Other analysts focus on short-term trends, and market observer DustyBC stated that the current four-hour chart is relatively stagnant, suggesting traders patiently wait for a breakout confirmation to enter the buying zone to avoid false starts. On the other hand, Casi Trades pointed out on September 23 that XRP is forming a double bottom at $2.70 at the end of its consolidation, accompanied by a sharp lower shadow, which is attributed to excessive leverage liquidation rather than real selling pressure. Since then, XRP has rebounded above the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level of $2.79, with the candle body continuously respecting that support.

Casi expects to test $2.79 again, and if the four-hour RSI shows a bullish divergence, Wave 3 will be initiated, targeting $4.00 and $4.40, corresponding to the 2.618 and 3.618 Fibonacci extensions. However, a drop below $2.70 will reset the trend, pointing to the 0.618 retracement level of $2.58. The current RSI oversold signal strengthens the buying potential, but trading volume confirmation is needed to filter out noise.

Market Outlook: Balancing Long-term Potential and Short-term Risks of XRP

The current selling pressure of XRP comes from a broader market correction, but the historical 21 EMA pattern and the short-term double bottom provide a support basis. The forecast range for 2025 is between 1.81 and 4.44 dollars, averaging 5.92 dollars, with a potential extreme optimistic target of 15 dollars, depending on breaking through the 3.40 dollars resistance. Institutional interest and whale accumulation further support the upside; if the 2.90 dollars support holds, XRP may enter the "Valhalla price discovery" phase in Q4, targeting 23 dollars.

The risk lies in the possibility of a pullback of 74% to $1 if the key support is broken, according to historical data. However, EGRAG emphasizes that a weekly close above $4 can hedge against this. Overall, the path-dependent technical confirmation of XRP correlates with the macro environment, and investors should monitor EMA dynamics and RSI divergence.

Conclusion

Despite the short-term selling pressure pushing XRP below $2.86, EGRAG's historical path analysis and the double bottom signal from Casi Trades highlight its explosive potential towards $9.6 or higher levels, with the 21 EMA retest possibly becoming a turning point. This outlook reinforces XRP's long-term narrative in the payment space, but it is essential to balance short-term consolidation risks with historical resilience; a Q4 breakout will determine its leap from blue-chip altcoin to mainstream reserve.

Disclaimer: This article is for news information only and does not constitute any investment advice. The crypto market is highly volatile, and investors should make decisions with caution.