Web3 New Season Overview: Value Discovery and Risk Perspective of Limitless, Momentum, and YieldBasis

The current Web3 initial public offering market is experiencing a new wave of enthusiasm, sparked by the unexpected returns from the Plasma IPO under Echo's Sonar platform. Market sentiment is high, and capital inflow is evident. This report focuses on the three hottest IPO projects at the moment—Limitless (the largest prediction market in the Base ecosystem), Momentum (the liquidity engine of the Move ecosystem), and YieldBasis (a DeFi protocol resistant to Impermanent Loss)—analyzing them from multiple dimensions such as fundamentals, technical prospects, and risk opportunities, providing investors with a panoramic investment reference.

1. Fundamental Analysis of the Ecosystem

1. Key Indicators and Market Heat Comparison

The three major projects have their own characteristics in terms of financing scale, participation mechanisms, and market enthusiasm:

Limitless is the largest prediction market platform in the Base ecosystem, having completed a total financing of 7 million USD. It set a record of 50 times oversubscription in the new project activity on the Kaito platform, raising over 50 million USD. Its token economy adopts a phased unlocking model, with 50% unlocked at TGE and the remaining 50% unlocked after 6 months.

Momentum focuses on the Move ecosystem liquidity engine and has received $10 million in funding support. The project has accumulated over $220 million in total locked value (TVL) through liquidity mining activities and has attracted a large number of participants on the Buidlpad platform by providing liquidity in exchange for new share allocation.

YieldBasis is developed by Curve founder Michael Egorov, dedicated to solving the problem of Impermanent Loss in the DeFi space. It has completed a $5 million funding round, with a token valuation of $50 million. As the first project on the Kraken Launch platform, it is also participating in initial offerings on both the Legion and Kraken platforms, using a fully unlocked 100% token model at TGE.

2. Unique positioning and technical features

The unique positioning of Limitless lies in its status as the largest prediction market platform on the Base ecosystem, with trading volume approaching $400 million. The founding team previously developed a viral AI product with 300 million downloads and received support from top venture capital firms such as a16z and Coinbase Ventures. Compared to traditional prediction markets like Augur, Limitless has significant advantages in user experience and liquidity due to the low transaction costs of the Base chain and its strong capital backing.

Momentum evolved from Momentum Safe, focusing on providing institutional-level multi-signature fund management, token ownership, and liquidity supply solutions for the Move ecosystem. Unlike general-purpose DEXs, Momentum is more focused on serving the professional asset management needs of B-end users, establishing a significant first-mover advantage within the SUI ecosystem.

YieldBasis is crafted by the founder of the top DeFi protocol Curve, reconstructing the AMM mechanism through mathematical methods, aiming to achieve "zero impermanent loss" in liquidity provision. This technological positioning directly addresses the core pain points in the DeFi sector, differentiating itself from perpetual contract DEXs like Hyperliquid, with its technological barriers and the founder's reputation forming the project's core moat.

3. Advantages and Disadvantages of Token Economic Models

The batch unlocking model of Limitless helps to alleviate early selling pressure, providing a buffer period for the coin price and encouraging investors to hold positions for the medium to long term. However, the concentrated unlocking after 6 months will still create potential selling pressure, requiring the project to demonstrate sufficient progress during this period to support market confidence.

Momentum represents an innovative model of equity tokenization by providing liquidity in exchange for new token allocations. This design enables the early distribution of tokens to genuine ecosystem participants, which is beneficial for building a stable community foundation. However, the specific details of the tokenomics have not yet been fully disclosed, leading to a degree of uncertainty.

The advantage of the complete unlocking model of YieldBasis lies in sufficient market circulation, eliminating the continuous selling pressure that may arise from unlocking in the future, allowing the token price to discover quickly. However, the disadvantages of this model are also very obvious: all private investors and teams can sell at the beginning of the listing, and if there is no strong buying support, the price will face tremendous pressure, posing a severe test for the project's long-term value and market sentiment.

2. Technical Analysis and Development Forecast

1. Price Trends and Market Sentiment Analysis

The current sentiment in the IPO market is extremely enthusiastic, with the wealth effect from the previous project Plasma's "1 dollar for over 10,000 dollars worth of XPL tokens" continuing to ferment, leading the market to have extremely high expectations for the new round of IPO projects. The participation enthusiasm for the three projects is strong, with Limitless oversubscribed by 50 times, Momentum TVL exceeding 220 million dollars, and YieldBasis being the debut project for Kraken, all indicating that the initial phase of listing may face a buying frenzy, and the opening price fluctuations will be extremely intense.

2. Valuation-based Price Prediction

Based on project valuation, track ceiling, and current market environment, we give the following price predictions for the three projects:

Limitless has the potential to achieve a fully diluted valuation (FDV) of $300-500 million in the short term, backed by the immense potential of the prediction market track and top venture capital endorsements. In the medium term, as the ecosystem develops and technology iterates, this may further rise to $500-800 million. This prediction is based on its trading volume foundation of $400 million and the liquidity dividend of the Base ecosystem.

Momentum serves as the core infrastructure of the SUI ecosystem, with a short-term FDV expected to be in the range of 400-600 million USD. In the medium term, if the SUI ecosystem experiences explosive growth, its valuation is expected to reach 700-1,000 million USD. The current TVL of 220 million USD has already proven the product's market fit.

YieldBasis has an initial FDV of 50 million USD. Considering that it addresses the most stubborn pain points in the DeFi world and is developed by industry-leading figures, the short-term FDV is expected to reach 700-1,000 million USD. If its mechanism proves effective after launch, the mid-term valuation may advance towards 1,000-1,500 million USD, aligning with the market value of top DeFi protocols.

3. Summary of Opportunities and Risks

1. bullish catalyst

The opportunities faced by the three major projects include the market sector rotation effect, with the current market environment led by the financial sector and smart contract platform sector creating favorable macro conditions for them. At the same time, the success of previous new project launches has generated a strong wealth effect, with new funds continuously flowing into the new project launch sector.

In terms of individual opportunities for various projects, YieldBasis, as the first project on the Kraken Launch platform, will receive full promotion and resource allocation from the platform, resulting in peak exposure and user acquisition. If its mechanism against Impermanent Loss is proven effective through practice, it will attract a large number of conservative BTC/ETH holders to enter the market, bringing disruptive growth in traffic.

Limitless may benefit from the increased activity in prediction markets brought about by the U.S. election cycle, and its close partnership with Coinbase provides important expectations for future listings on mainstream platforms.

Momentum is deeply bound to the SUI ecosystem. If the SUI ecosystem experiences explosive growth, it will directly benefit as a core liquidity engine, gaining more development space.

2. Risk Factors

In terms of common risks, all three projects face systemic risks brought about by the high beta characteristics of the cryptocurrency market. Once the market turns, all assets are difficult to remain unaffected. Regulatory uncertainty is also an important risk factor. Although Kraken supports KYC for mainland China, providing cryptocurrency services to residents in mainland China is considered illegal financial activity under the regulations. In addition, any smart contract carries technical risks of undiscovered vulnerabilities, especially for protocols like YieldBasis and Momentum that involve complex financial logic.

In terms of specific risks for various projects, the 100% full unlocking of YieldBasis's TGE is the biggest risk point. Early investors face immense pressure to sell at zero cost, and if there is insufficient buying capital after the opening, it is likely to create a situation of high opening and low closing.

The challenge faced by Limitless is that prediction markets may face stricter securities law regulatory scrutiny in certain jurisdictions, which could impact its global business expansion.

The main risk of Momentum lies in its valuation, which is highly dependent on the development of the SUI ecosystem. If SUI does not develop as expected, Momentum will face a significant ceiling limitation.

4. Investment Conclusion

Overall, the three main characters of this Web3 new season represent innovative directions in their respective segments and have all received backing from top-tier capital or ecosystems, indicating a high quality of fundamentals. Among them, YieldBasis has the greatest potential due to its ability to solve core pain points and its top-notch founder background, but correspondingly, its fully unlocked token model also brings the highest short-term risk. Limitless and Momentum, on the other hand, offer a more balanced risk-reward ratio with their solid ecological positions and relatively robust token models.

For investors, this is not only three independent opportunities for initial offerings, but also a concentrated bet on the three tracks of prediction markets, liquidity infrastructure, and core DeFi protocols. While participating in the frenzy, it is crucial to be soberly aware that "initial offerings" are essentially a game of liquidity and market sentiment, rather than the end of value investment. The real long-term value will ultimately be defined by the project's actual product data and ecological growth after the token listing and the noise settles.

Disclaimer: All analyses in this report are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly risky, please make rational decisions.