From stablecoins to Hypeliquid, let's talk about the current encryption metanarrative.

stablecoin

In my view, the main narrative in the next three to five years is likely to be “adoption,” and the only crypto applications that can quickly reach the level of “adoption” are stablecoins. Top applications like Hyperliquid and Pump.fun are still limited to the native adoption of Crypto itself. To truly achieve widespread adoption, a long way still needs to be traveled.

In summary, stablecoins will be the core metagame of the Crypto market in the future.

Breaking it down, the hype around the stablecoin narrative boils down to two points: 1) saving money; 2) speculation on the token prices of stablecoin infrastructure.

1) Saving Money

Saving money, low risk, and considerable returns make it very popular in the market. Recent examples include Spark, Plasma, and Zerobase, which have offered very high APY during the saving activities before TGE.

The underlying logic is: 1) The project party needs to increase the token valuation by preparing TVL data and cooperating with exchange activities before the TGE in order to exit after the TGE; 2) Alternatively, the project party needs to drive the circulation of its stablecoin through economic incentives (generally tokens) to ultimately achieve the goal of promoting stablecoin adoption.

Saving money is a direction that I would recommend. However, with the development of the market, deposits in stablecoins are likely to become more competitive and yields will continue to decrease. It is best to invest in projects that have partnerships with major exchanges.

2) Speculation on Token Prices of Stablecoin Infrastructure

In my opinion, participating in the speculation of such token prices carries extremely high risks, and it is currently not at a positive EV stage. The main reason is still what I mentioned in the first article, “The emergence of speculation is driven by demand (even if this demand is just pseudo-demand or unsustainable demand) or Ponzi (high returns and high capital efficiency, stemming from greed)” & “Demand and Ponzi interact with each other, and are constrained by cycles.”

Currently, the speculation of tokens in this track is basically still concentrated in the stage backed by backgrounds, investment institutions, and exchanges, where saving money is the optimal solution rather than buying tokens. It would be better to consider token speculation only when demand arises or Ponzi schemes appear.

super app and buyback

The super applications involved are just the two mentioned above, Hyperliquid and Pump.fun. The core of trading these super applications is “buyback.”

Super apps mean that they have achieved a very good PMF (Product-market fit) in the market, which means that these super apps can capture a continuous cash flow of transaction fees in the medium to long term.

Using product fees for “buybacks” can provide sufficient buying liquidity during the product's upswing, driving its token price up. A rising token price is the best advertisement for the product. This is actually an invisible flywheel.

Secondly, buybacks can balance the different positions represented by token holders and product users, binding product users to the token, increasing the stickiness of token holders, reducing speculative behavior, and increasing investment behavior.

Another noteworthy point is that Pump.fun is transitioning from the Launchpad and DEX narrative to live streaming, that is, a streaming narrative. I believe @TimDraper is the signal for the trend reversal of $PUMP (and alon has also started to get into ICM). If the crypto market enters a recovery phase in the near future, the price performance of $PUMP is something we can look forward to.

As for $HYPE , I think it still needs to wait for the unlocking event to pass before coming out, but I am optimistic in the long run.

ICO&ICM

There is essentially not much difference between ICO and ICM at this stage.

ICO is a straightforward and blunt way of raising funds, while ICM (Internet Capital Market) tells a big story to package the idea of “raising funds.”

Why do we need to create a bigger story? It's because only a big and good story can attract more participants and create a bigger bubble. This is the story that Solana wants to tell right now. At the same time, this is also in conjunction with the launch of the $SOL ETF – there has to be a reason for Tradefi to buy $SOL , right?

Under this narrative of ICM, I am not very optimistic about Launchcoin, as it's always the same with livestock. @MetaDAOProject is somewhat better, having sufficient interaction with Solana's official team, a strong background, and the market is willing to pay for the projects it produces (mainly because they can make money). Another reason for my optimism is that $META has not yet been listed on CEX.

Overall, the Solana ecosystem is in a recovery phase. The foundation has laid out what it needs to, and it's approaching the time for a significant push. This time frame is likely to be around the launch of the ETF.

The short-term forecast is roughly like this (as long as there are no major issues in the market in the short term), the medium to long-term development will depend on the overall market trend.

Prediction Markets and Robot Narratives (Conduction of Web2 Narratives)

Prediction markets and robots are not native narratives of the crypto market; the market is merely riding the hype of the narratives developed in the Web2 world. I won't elaborate too much here, as many people have already hyped up these two narratives of prediction markets and robots. Personally, I am optimistic about prediction markets, but I do not believe in the long-term hype of this narrative. As for the robot narrative, I think it is just mediocre.

The speculation in prediction markets is still dominated by VCs, and it's unlikely to see those very Ponzi-like plays, so I think the excitement in the market may pass after a while. Platforms like Limitless and BSC prediction markets can be participated in, but are not suitable for a long-term perspective. The speculation in prediction markets may focus on Q4. When Polymarket issues its token/IPO, there will be another wave of speculation.

Crypto is inherently skilled at asset speculation, rather than creating robots. There are essentially two approaches to the narrative of robots: 1) providing training assistance (data, computing power) to Web2 robot companies, such as $SAPIEN @gaib_ai; 2) providing software services for robots, such as @openmind_agi. Both types can be discussed briefly, looking for opportunities during TGE.

The hype cycle brought over from Web2 typically has a short duration (referring to the overall sector's explosion), and the excitement fades quickly (about a month?). In contrast, the narratives of crypto-native Ponzi/asset issuance can last much longer.

Narratives like prediction markets and bots being repeatedly mentioned and favored by Crypto Twitter also indicate that after $TRUMP , the crypto market has yet to see a well-defined new narrative that can be heavily speculated upon. The market is extremely eager for the speculation of new narratives and new assets.

Artificial Narrative

Artificial narratives are similar to BSC meme speculation, which has a high wealth effect but comes with significant uncertainty and risk. The market dynamics are very fast, making it very suitable for small investors to enter and play. Personally, I am more optimistic about original memes that are unrelated to specific individuals and embody the spirit of the internet, such as Hakimi. The first to be speculated on will definitely be memecoins related to specific individuals, as the market attention is focused enough. Over time, market attention will gradually become weary of these memecoins related to specific individuals, shifting towards memes that have a broader audience.

I actually think Perp DEX can be considered a semi-artificial narrative. In my observation, the timing of FOMO for Lighter and other Perp DEX is close to the timing of Aster's rise. Since the inception of Hyperliquid, Perp DEX has gradually begun to receive attention, Aster rises, and then a hundred schools of thought contend, with the final outcome likely being the dismissal of a hundred schools in favor of Confucianism. Trading is trading, but don't have faith in some clone Perp DEX. Personally, I believe that Hyperliquid still has the opportunity to become the final winner.

The development of artificial narratives tests “people”; when people are awesome, narratives will also be awesome, like this wave of BSC. $ZEC 's rise also relies on @naval's statement: “Bitcoin is insurance against fiat. ZCash is insurance against Bitcoin” (and the underlying CX, BTC Maxis are also willing to buy). This kind of narrative requires you to be early enough and have enough PVP to have a chance to gain sufficiently substantial returns.