Why have I gradually given up on research and investment in Web3 projects?

null Introduction

Recently, most of my energy has shifted towards the AI field, and the output related to Web3 has also decreased. However, after more than a year of reflection, I have accumulated many new insights and experiences about this industry that are worth sharing with everyone.

Early readers who have followed me may remember that my writing career began with research and analysis of projects and tracks. However, I have rarely put pen to paper for such articles for some time now. Behind this, there is both an enhancement of my personal perspective—allowing me to glimpse the higher-order and more fundamental operational logic of the Web3 world; as well as a series of changes in my personal resources and wealth concepts.

During this period, I have been frequently asked by friends: “How is a certain project?” “Is that sector still worth investing in?” I often find myself at a loss for words because, in the current environment, it is very difficult to provide definitive answers to these questions.

After a period of thinking and sorting out, I would like to systematically discuss why my enthusiasm for investment research and analysis of specific projects has gradually shifted towards abandonment.

Core One: The Reversal of Information Barriers - When AI Becomes a Tool for Creating Fog

Undoubtedly, one of the core profit models in the Web3 industry stems from information asymmetry. In terms of “investment research,” whoever can discover the potential value of a project earlier and position themselves in advance can achieve excess returns. However, it is precisely for this reason that I ultimately gave up this path.

Looking back at 2018 and 2019, I was still doing project ratings. Thanks to my computer science background, many blockchain concepts that seemed obscure to outsiders were quite familiar to me. This allowed me to relatively easily discern which projects were hollow and which ones truly had technological substance.

However, by the time we reach 2025 (note: this refers to the current and near-future industry environment), this methodology has almost become ineffective. It is not that the development of blockchain technology has exceeded my understanding, but rather that project teams have become incredibly adept at using the latest AI large models to “package” themselves. Projects that could be easily seen through in the past can now, with the support of AI, create narratives, technical white papers, and even GitHub repositories that are seamless and appear quite legitimate.

I might as well be frank: over the past two years, I have helped some exchanges and project parties write a number of promotional articles that appear to be “technically professional” to the outside world, but their true authors are actually AI. In fact, much of the seemingly active project interaction data and on-chain transaction records are also generated in bulk through scripts written by AI.

This means that in the era of AI proliferation, the costs of traditional investment research are increasing exponentially. To discern the authenticity of a project, the effort and time you need to invest far exceed what was required in the past. Public information channels have been severely polluted by AI-generated “noise,” and it feels like we are watching a “magic duel” between AIs, while real and effective information is buried under layers of obfuscation. I personally have also tried to use AI to analyze Web3 projects, but progress has been minimal, and I feel trapped in a vicious cycle of mutual validation of AI-generated content.

Core II: Decoupling Value - The Discrepancy Between Project Quality and Token Price

For many who have not yet deeply engaged in Web3 investment research, this seems to be a path with high returns. Indeed, during the first two cycles, I earned considerable profits through investment research. But that was a relatively “pure” era in the industry—good projects really did rise.

As of today, Web3 has developed into a highly mature and clearly divided industrial chain. From project preparation, fundraising, issuance, promotion to market value management, each link has professional institutions or incubators operating behind the scenes. Even many of the KOLs you see have the support of exchanges behind them.

As an independent researcher who is on the “outside,” the possibility of conducting research and profiting solely from publicly available information has become extremely slim.

The deeper issue is that, in the vast majority of Web3 projects, the technical team and the operation team are separate. In other words, there may indeed be a group of tech geeks dedicated to building excellent technology, but the price trends of the tokens are not determined by them. During the fundraising phase of the project, the market-making rights of the tokens are often handed over to professional operation teams.

Therefore, when a project releases significant positive news, such as a breakthrough in technology, it may actually be an excellent opportunity for the team to distribute their tokens. This also explains the common phenomenon: why, when there is a technological breakthrough, does the price instead plummet?

Ultimately, the industry has evolved into the current situation: the quality of the project itself is completely separate from the performance of its token price. This is precisely the fundamental reason why I find myself in a dilemma when friends ask me questions like “Is the project good? Can the token be bought?”

Core Three: The Disappearance of Fundamentals - An Era Where Traffic and Sentiment Reign

This point may be the most heart-wrenching: In today's world where Meme culture is rampant, the quality of projects themselves has become unimportant. The project parties do not care, and most participants do not care either. Traffic and sentiment have instead become the only metrics for measuring a project's success.

I am also keeping an eye on some projects, such as the highly anticipated Monad ecosystem that is about to airdrop, but its overall popularity and community engagement may be far less than that of a suddenly trending Meme project.

This precisely reveals a cruel characteristic of Web3 today: “I come to Web3 to make money; my goal is profit, not to build a quality project.” When the consensus of the entire market is built on this, in-depth research on the project's fundamentals becomes insignificant, even somewhat “out of place.”

On the other hand, as I engage with higher levels of the industry, I gradually realize that the quality of the project itself is not the key issue when project parties negotiate with investors or trading institutions. As long as they choose a track that sounds good and has momentum, and weave the narrative with AI in a compelling manner, the rest is all about the games of human relationships and chip distribution. As for the development progress of the project, that is merely the time point they use to decide when to distribute the chips.

Conclusion: The True Value of Investment Research

In writing this article, my aim is not to completely deny the value of “investment research.” On the contrary, investment research itself plays an immeasurable and significant role in broadening personal horizons, enhancing cognitive depth, and building a knowledge system. At the very least, it has allowed me to grow from an ignorant “retail investor” into a participant who can avoid the vast majority of traps.

However, if your only goal is short-term profit, then I believe that in the current era, relying solely on public information for investment research to make money has become an exceptionally narrow path.

Nowadays, the content of public investment research has evolved more into a “traffic diversion tool.” For example, I once spent a month operating an investment research account, and the articles easily reached a readership of tens of thousands. However, the endpoint of this path often leads to driving traffic to third-party paid communities, which then guide you to purchase certain tokens through various means, with the final profit point still resting on “selling tokens.” Because I believe this model is not honorable and I did not profit from it, I later gave up.

My years of investment research experience have given me an unprecedented deep understanding of Buffett's famous saying:

“Never invest in a business you cannot understand.”

“Never invest in a company you don't understand.”

In the past, I thought that “understanding” meant comprehending the technology and models. Now I realize that in Web3, “understanding” must also include grasping the underlying capital structure, the games of interest, and human nature. And these are precisely what publicly available information can never tell you.