Bitwise predicts that Bitcoin will迎来 the "golden moment of 2025", with a target price of 150,000 USD.

After experiencing a strong rise of 30% since August, gold prices have cooled near $4,400 and fell by 6%. This has prompted the BTC/gold ratio to rebound by 8%, indicating that Bitcoin's strength relative to gold is increasing. Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan predicts that as the selling pressure from long-term holders is fully absorbed by the ETF, Bitcoin may welcome a breakout moment similar to gold's this year, referred to as “Gold 2025.” This prediction is supported by the key support level of the BTC/gold ratio on the weekly chart; if successfully held, Bitcoin could outperform gold, with prices expected to reach $150,000.

Gold Pullback Releases Signal: Bitcoin/Gold Ratio Warms Up

Recently, gold, as a traditional safe-haven asset and a means of value storage, has begun to cool down after a significant rise, which may create a capital rotation opportunity for Bitcoin, the “digital gold.”

After the price rose from 3.2k USD to nearly 4400 USD, achieving a 30% rise since August, gold encountered a cooldown and dropped 6% earlier this week. This pullback caused the Bitcoin/gold ratio (tracking Bitcoin's price performance relative to gold) to rebound by 8%, suggesting that Bitcoin is slightly strengthening its relative performance.

This shift in relative strength raises a key question: Will the cooling of gold accelerate the inflow of funds into Bitcoin ETFs, thereby supporting Bitcoin to welcome a stronger rebound?

Bitwise Outlook: Bitcoin's “Golden Moment 2025”

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan has made an exciting prediction, suggesting that the development path of Bitcoin may be mirroring the recent explosive rise of gold.

Hougan pointed out that although the price of gold has surged mainly this year, global central banks have been actively accumulating gold since 2022. He believes that although gold investors may have sold off in the past two years, the exhaustion of selling this year has allowed prices to soar.

He predicts that Bitcoin will follow a similar path. Since July, long-term holders of Bitcoin have been selling tokens to ETFs and corporate treasuries. Hougan summarized: “But as the example of gold suggests, at some point, these sellers will be exhausted. As long as the combination of ETF and corporate purchases continues to exist, Bitcoin will welcome its 'Gold 2025' moment.”

ETF Fund Flow Comparison: From Gold Rotation to Bitcoin?

The data on ETF capital flows reveals a clear pattern of capital rotation between gold and Bitcoin, which is crucial for understanding future market dynamics.

From July until now, gold ETFs have attracted more capital inflow, skyrocketing from $5 billion to over $35 billion, driving up the price of gold. However, during the same period, the inflow of Bitcoin ETFs has decreased from $20 billion to $8 billion, coinciding with the phase of funds rotating from Bitcoin to gold.

It is worth noting that during periods when Bitcoin outperforms gold (such as in the second quarter), the inflows attracted by Bitcoin ETFs are greater than those of gold. Therefore, if gold experiences a sustained pullback, Bitcoin may regain focus and print higher prices.

Technical Signals: BTC/Gold Ratio Target of $150,000

From a technical analysis perspective, the Bitcoin/gold ratio is at a critical turning point, and its trend may indicate significant upward potential for Bitcoin.

On the weekly chart, the BTC/gold ratio is at a key support level, above the moving average, and is retesting the lower bound of that indicator. If this support level is effectively defended, Bitcoin will outperform gold, with the direct target for the BTC/gold ratio being 37, which implies a potential 46% gain.

If the target price level is reached, it will suggest that the price of Bitcoin may reach around $150,000. Although the realization of this prediction remains to be seen, this technical signal provides a strong bullish foundation for Bitcoin holders.

Conclusion

With the short-term pullback of gold and the stabilization of the Bitcoin/gold ratio at a key support level, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan's prediction of a “Gold 2025” moment for Bitcoin brings strong bullish expectations to the market. This view is based on the structural changes of long-term holders' selling fatigue and continuous buying from ETFs. If the technical signals can be confirmed, and capital rotation accelerates from gold ETFs to Bitcoin ETFs, the price of Bitcoin is likely to hit a new high of $150,000. This further solidifies Bitcoin's long-term narrative as a digital store of value asset.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. The crypto market is highly volatile, and investors should make decisions with caution.