Bitcoin falls below 109,000! ETH and XRP key support are in crisis, RSI warns of a deep pullback.

As of the time of publication on November 3, the price of BTC has slightly fallen below $109,000, while the prices of ETH and XRP are approaching key support levels. If these support levels are breached, it may trigger a larger decline. The Momentum Index of these major crypto assets continues to weaken, with the RSI below the neutral level of 50, and the MACD lines converging with the green histogram declining, indicating that further pullbacks may occur this week.

BTC Momentum Weakness Test $106,453 Fibonacci Support

(Source: Trading View)

Last week, the BTC price encountered resistance around $115,137, falling to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level (which is based on the low of $74,508 on April 7 to the historical high of $126,199 on October 6), subsequently dropping by 3.51%. As of the time of publication on Monday, BTC was trading around $109,000. The loss of this price level marks a weakening of bullish control, and the market is reassessing the short-term trend.

If BTC continues to pull back and closes below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $106,453, it may continue to fall to the low of $102,000 on October 10. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level is one of the most important support levels in technical analysis, often referred to as the “golden ratio,” and has historically been a key turning point multiple times. If this support is effectively broken, it will confirm the continuation of the medium-term adjustment trend.

The relative strength index (RSI) on the daily chart is 43, below the neutral level of 50, indicating that bearish momentum is strengthening. The RSI has fallen from a high and has broken below the neutral line, which typically signals that price momentum is shifting from positive to negative, with buying power beginning to weaken compared to selling power. The lines of the moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) are also converging, and the decline of the green histogram indicates that bullish momentum is weakening. When the MACD fast line approaches the slow line from below, it is often an early signal that a trend reversal is imminent.

BTC Key Technical Levels

Current price: $109,000

Key Support: $106,453 (61.8% Fibonacci), $102,000 (October low)

Key Resistance: $115,137 (78.6% Fibonacci), $112,550 (50 Day EMA)

RSI: 43 (bearish)

MACD: Convergence (momentum weakening)

However, if BTC finds support at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level around $106,453, it may continue to rebound to the 50-day moving average at $112,550. The 50-day EMA is an important indicator of the medium-term trend, and regaining this moving average will signify that the bulls are regaining control. However, based on the current technical structure, this rebound requires clear volume support; otherwise, it may just be a technical rebound within a downward continuation.

ETH key resistance zone rejected, falling towards 3,593 USD

(Source: Trading View)

Last week, the price of ETH encountered resistance at the daily resistance level of $4,232, falling by 6%. As of Monday's press time, ETH was trading around $3,759, in a downtrend. This 6% weekly decline is significantly larger than BTC's 3.51%, indicating a more pronounced relative weakness for ETH, potentially influenced by unclear expectations regarding the Ethereum network upgrade and intensified Layer-2 competition.

If ETH continues to pull back, the downward trend may extend to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 3,593 USD. This support level is also a golden ratio level in technical analysis, holding significant psychological and technical importance. From the volume distribution perspective, there is a substantial amount of historical trading records around the 3,593 USD mark, indicating strong buying support in this price range. However, if this support is broken, the next support level may be in the range of 3,200 to 3,300 USD.

Similar to BTC, the RSI and MACD indicators of ETH also show bearish signals. The RSI of ETH is currently around 40, which is close to the edge of the oversold region (usually an RSI below 30 is considered oversold). This suggests that a technical rebound may occur in the short term, but if the RSI continues to dive into the oversold area, it indicates that selling pressure is still being released. In terms of MACD, the fast line has crossed below the slow line to form a death cross, which is a typical bearish signal.

On the other hand, if the ETH price rebounds, it could further rise to around the 50-day moving average of $4,062. This would represent about an 8% rebound potential, but achieving this kind of rebound requires a clear improvement in market sentiment and active buying intervention. From the current technical structure, ETH is more likely to oscillate between $3,593 and $4,062, waiting for a directional breakthrough.

XRP may fall to 1.96 if it cannot hold 2.35

(Source: Trading View)

Last week, the price of XRP encountered resistance near the 50-day moving average of $2.64, falling by 4.51%. As of Monday's publication, XRP was trading at $2.44, close to the daily support level of $2.35. The importance of this support level lies in the fact that it is the lower boundary of XRP's consolidation over the past few weeks and has been the starting point for multiple rebounds.

If XRP falls below and closes under the daily support level of $2.35, the pullback may extend to the next daily support level of $1.96. This would represent a decline of about 20% from the current price, posing significant risk for XRP holders. $1.96 is an important low point for XRP during the previous adjustment and is also a key support line for the long-term upward trend. If this level is also lost, XRP may enter a deeper bear market adjustment.

Like BTC and ETH, XRP's RSI and MACD also show early signs of bearish momentum. XRP's RSI is currently around 42, which is also below neutral, indicating that selling pressure is dominant. In terms of MACD, the histogram is shifting from positive to negative, and the distance between the fast line and the slow line is narrowing, signaling a depletion of bullish momentum.

On the other hand, if XRP recovers, it could rise further to around the 50-day EMA at $2.64. Regaining a 50-day EMA would be an important technical signal that could entice short-term traders to buy again. However, for this rally to occur, XRP needs to stabilize at the $2.35 support level first, along with volume amplification. Looking at the current price action, XRP is in the key long-short scramble area.

The Interaction Effects of Three Major Coins and Market Outlook

The simultaneous weakening of BTC, ETH, XRP is not accidental, but a reflection of the overall crypto market sentiment shift. When BTC runs out of momentum as a market leader, it tends to drag down the entire market. The bearish configuration of technical indicators across the board – RSI below 50, MACD death cross, key support levels being tested – all point to the possibility of a deeper pullback in the near term.

Investors should closely monitor the defense of three key support levels: BTC's $106,453, ETH's $3,593, and XRP's $2.35. If these support levels are effectively broken, it will confirm a medium-term adjustment trend, with targets potentially pointing towards lower support areas.