XRP Price Prediction: Are Whales Accelerating Withdrawals from Exchanges? Is a 50% Surge Coming Next?

After reaching a multi-year high of $3.66, XRP’s price has pulled back over 35% in the past three months and is currently stabilizing in the $2.00 to $2.50 range. However, on-chain data shows that since September, the amount of XRP held on exchanges has flowed out by 1.43 billion tokens—reaching a pace not seen since the accumulation phase of 2022. This massive withdrawal, combined with current technical patterns that closely resemble the fractal formations before the 2024 bull run, suggests the market may be brewing a 25% to 50% rebound, with traders actively “buying the dip.”

Whales Accelerate XRP Accumulation, Exchange Supply Hits Multi-Year Lows

1.43 Billion XRP Mysteriously Disappear: Historic Withdrawal Wave Returns

Tracking large fund flows is key to understanding market sentiment. According to on-chain data from Glassnode, over the past two months, XRP has seen an unusually large outflow from major centralized exchanges (CEXs), totaling an astonishing 1.43 billion tokens since September.

This figure signals a strong market signal: it reflects a shift of supply from high-liquidity trading venues to long-term storage. Historically, during similar phases in late 2022 when XRP hovered around $0.34, long-term holders and whales withdrew large amounts of tokens from exchanges, transferring them to private wallets for long-term holding. That accumulation phase laid the groundwork for a major rally in late 2024, ultimately pushing XRP to all-time highs amid rising risk appetite and improved global liquidity.

Market Sentiment Analysis: From Liquidity Drain to Confidence Boost

While exchange balances are dropping to multi-year lows, XRP’s price remains relatively high in the $2.00 to $2.50 range. This divergence between “price stability” and “supply reduction” strongly indicates growing investor confidence in XRP’s long-term prospects.

When assets flow out of exchanges, it suggests investors are moving tokens from high-liquidity venues into long-term storage, reducing short-term selling pressure and establishing a solid price floor. After a deep correction of over 35%, the surge in withdrawals is a strong sign that the market perceives current prices as attractive for accumulation.

Technical Fractals Repeating: Hidden Bullish Momentum Amid Bearish Signals

The “Reversal Indicator” Death Cross: Fractal Patterns Mirroring 2024 Pre-Bull Run

Despite positive on-chain signals, XRP’s technical chart shows bearish warning signs: its 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) is about to cross below the 200-day EMA, forming the classic “Death Cross,” often interpreted as a bearish signal in traditional analysis.

However, savvy crypto analysts focus on fractal patterns—price behaviors that repeat historically. XRP’s current price action remarkably mirrors the pattern seen before the late 2024 breakout:

Back then, XRP was also under a death cross and consolidating within a descending channel. This seemingly weak structure ultimately acted as a springboard for a powerful rebound, with XRP soaring from around $0.48 to a peak of $3.69 within weeks.

Buy-the-Dip Signal: RSI Shows Mild Bullish Divergence

Currently, XRP is again in a similar descending channel and has formed a new death cross. But a more critical signal appears in its Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is hovering near 40 and displaying a mild bullish divergence.

In technical analysis, when prices continue to decline or move sideways, but momentum indicators like RSI start to tilt upward or stabilize, it signals a potential weakening of selling pressure. This divergence often foreshadows a reversal, suggesting that a strong bounce or trend change could be imminent.

Trading Strategy & Risk Warning: Assessing a 25%-50% Upside Potential

Short- and Medium-Term Price Targets

If XRP manages to break out of the current descending channel, the upside targets are relatively clear:

1. Primary (short-term): Aim for the 0.382 to 0.5 Fibonacci retracement levels—roughly $2.46 to $2.09—to recover previous losses.
2. Extended (mid-term): With increasing momentum and macro liquidity improving, the price could push beyond the key psychological level of $3.

This suggests a potential 25% to 50% rally from current levels over the coming months.

Risks & Trading Recommendations

While the fractal patterns and on-chain data point toward a bullish reversal, investors should remain cautious:

• Death Cross Persistence: If macro sentiment worsens, the bearish crossover could continue to exert downward pressure, breaking key support levels.
• Volume & Momentum: A genuine reversal typically requires significant trading volume to break through resistance convincingly. Watch for volume spikes on breakout attempts.

A prudent approach might be to accumulate gradually, especially near strong support around $2.00. For long-term investors, the current massive withdrawal trend provides a high-confidence accumulation opportunity.

Conclusion

XRP is at a critical inflection point. On-chain data shows whales are “voting” with their holdings, viewing current prices as a rare accumulation opportunity. Meanwhile, the technical fractal patterns echo historical setups that preceded major rallies, suggesting that the so-called “Death Cross” may be a false signal before a new surge. Amid the market’s correction, this dual on-chain and technical divergence offers investors a chance to evaluate a potential 25% to 50% upside, making XRP one of the most noteworthy assets in the current crypto landscape.