5 billion dollars Bitcoin Ethereum Options expire today! How is the crypto market reacting?

On November 14, 2025, at 16:00 Beijing time, the Deribit exchange will have nearly $5 billion worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum options expiring. Although this expiration scale is slightly lower than last week's $5.4 billion, the market has shown signs of fatigue, and the maximum pain levels of $105,000 (BTC) and $3,500 (ETH) will become the focal point of the Bull vs Bear Battle. On-chain data shows a bullish sentiment, but analysts warn that the U.S. government’s end of a 43-day shutdown has led to delays in economic data publication, coupled with the approaching Fed interest rate decision in December, significantly increasing market fluctuation risks.

Analysis of Bitcoin and Ethereum Options Expiration Scale and Market Background

In today's expiration of derivative contracts, the notional value of Bitcoin options reaches $4.04 billion, while Ether options also exceed $730 million, making it one of the largest concentrated expiration events in the second half of 2025. Compared to the same period last week, this expiration environment is more complex — the price of Bitcoin has dropped nearly 3% within 24 hours, briefly falling below the psychological threshold of $100,000, while Ethereum also fluctuates around $3,200. The head of the derivatives department at Deribit exchange pointed out that it is common for prices to converge towards the maximum pain level during options expiration week, but this expiration coincides with a macro data vacuum period, which may amplify price fluctuation.

From a timing perspective, the market will immediately face two key tests after the expiration: first, the long-overdue U.S. CPI data is about to be released, and second, the Fed's December meeting may adjust its quantitative tightening policy. The Greek crypto analysis firm Greeks.live emphasized in its research report that the open interest in the options market has risen in sync with trading volume, and the trading activity of out-of-the-money options has significantly increased, reflecting a notable divergence in the short-term directional judgment among market participants.

Bitcoin Options Market Bull vs Bear Battle Unveiled

The biggest pain point in the Bitcoin options market is positioned at $105,000, which means that if the price remains below this level at expiration, most bullish options buyers will face losses. Currently, the put/call ratio (PCR) is 0.63, indicating that the number of bullish options far exceeds bearish options, a structure that is typically seen as a bullish signal for the market. However, a careful analysis of on-chain data reveals that institutional investors are building a defensive line with put options ranging from $95,000 to $100,000, while positioning a large number of bullish options at $108,000 and $111,000, creating a clear Bull vs Bear Battle zone.

Bitcoin Options Expiration Key Data

Expiration Time: November 14, 2025, 16:00 (Beijing Time)

Bitcoin's biggest pain point: $105,000

Bear/Bull Ratio: 0.63

Total open contracts: 40,846

Bullish contracts proportion: 61.5% (25,121 contracts)

Bearish contract ratio: 38.5% (15,725 contracts)

Nominal total value: $4.04 billion

It is worth noting that, despite the optimistic market sentiment, the implied volatility surface indicates that short-term volatility expectations are warming up. Derivatives analysts point out that smart money is hedging through options combinations rather than making one-sided bets, which suggests that professional traders are more inclined to control risk exposure ahead of major macro events. Historical data shows that after options of similar scale expire, Bitcoin typically experiences directional breakouts within 24-48 hours, and the price movement after this expiration is likely to set the tone for the year-end market.

Structural Opportunities Emerge in the Ethereum Options Market

The Ethereum options market also shows a significant bullish tendency, with a put/call ratio of 0.64, slightly higher than that of the Bitcoin market. The current total open interest stands at 232,852 contracts, with 142,333 call contracts and only 90,515 put contracts, meaning the number of call contracts exceeds the put contracts by more than 1.5 times. The maximum pain point of $3,500 has about an 8% space from the current price, providing a clear target for short-term price fluctuations.

From the perspective of position distribution, Ethereum Options have accumulated a dense amount of open interest in the range of $3,200 to $3,600. Particularly around the $3,500 strike price, over 800,000 ETH options contracts have gathered, and whether this level can be broken will be key to judging the subsequent trend. On-chain data also shows that although retail investors continue to increase their positions, the number of whale addresses holding over 10,000 ETH is decreasing, and this divergence phenomenon is worth being cautious about.

Assessment of the Macroeconomic Environment and Its Correlation with the Cryptocurrency Market

The expiration event of this options contract coincides with a special macroeconomic background. The U.S. government has just resumed operations after a 43-day shutdown, during which the release of multiple economic data was interrupted, leading to difficulties in the market's assessment of the real economic situation. Analysts at Greeks.live point out that this data vacuum makes the upcoming release of the CPI data particularly important, as statistical agencies may focus on revising the data, which could lead to an unexpected market impact.

The more critical influencing factor comes from expectations of Fed policy. Although the market generally expects that the interest rate will remain unchanged at the December meeting, the pace of balance sheet reduction may be adjusted. Historical data shows that during periods of Fed policy shifts, the correlation between crypto assets and U.S. stocks significantly increases, and the recent approximately 1.2% drop in the Nasdaq index has already conveyed signals of pressure on risky assets. Data from the options market also confirms this concern—implied volatility for major maturities has shown a slight increase, especially as the short-term volatility curve exhibits fragmentation, indicating that the market is preparing for multiple potential scenarios.

Trading Strategy Recommendations After Bitcoin and Ethereum Options Expiration

For short-term traders, the gravitational effect of price approaching the maximum pain point should be the focus during the options expiration period. Historical statistics show that, during similarly sized expiration events, Bitcoin has over a 70% probability of moving towards the maximum pain level within 4 hours before expiration. However, it is important to be cautious, as once the price breaks through the maximum pain area, there is often an acceleration in the market. Therefore, it is recommended that traders set stop-loss orders at key support and resistance levels.

Long-term investors can pay attention to the market structure changes after expiration. From the holding data, if the price can stabilize above $105,000 (BTC) and $3,500 (ETH), a new upward trend may begin. Conversely, if it falls below $95,000 (BTC) and $3,050 (ETH), the market may enter a deeper adjustment. It is recommended that investors reduce leverage operations within 24 hours after expiration and wait for volatility to return to normal levels before making any arrangements.

Evolution of the Cryptocurrency Derivatives Market

Since Deribit dominated the market in 2020, cryptocurrency options have developed into a mature market with an average daily trading volume exceeding $20 billion. In 2023, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) launched weekly contracts for Bitcoin options, and in 2024, the open interest for Ethereum options surpassed $10 billion, marking the accelerated entry of traditional financial institutions. Currently, the options market has become an important barometer for measuring market sentiment, with indicators such as maximum pain and open interest distribution increasingly incorporated into trading models.

For ordinary investors, participating in options trading requires a focus on understanding three risk control dimensions: time decay (Theta) accelerates in the 72 hours leading up to expiration, volatility risk (Vega) amplifies during macro events, and the limitations of Delta hedging during rapid price movements. Professional traders typically employ spread strategies to reduce risk, such as buying a bullish option while simultaneously selling a bullish option with a higher strike price to control maximum loss. Additionally, investors should avoid establishing new out-of-the-money option positions on the expiration day, as these contracts have a very high risk of expiring worthless.

Market Outlook

With the completion of this large-scale Options contract delivery, the crypto market will shed its short-term burden, but what awaits it is a more complex macro battle. From the derivatives data, professional investors are preparing for severe Fluctuation at the end of the year, and the high open interest in the Options market suggests that neither the bulls nor the bears have given up their positions. It is worth considering whether, after the $5 billion contract turnover, the market will steadily move forward guided by the maximum pain point or break through technical constraints under the influence of macro catalysts. The answer will soon be revealed, but it is certain that the growing influence of the derivatives market is reshaping the pricing logic of crypto assets.