Analysis: Fed rate cuts can drop the possibility of a recession, but cannot be lowered to zero.

On August 7th, Jinshi Data, TS Lombard’s American economist Steven Blit: If the Fed does not act early, people will look for signs that the economy is heading for a recession, rather than indicators of the recession itself. The frequent appearance of soft data is not a serious crime against the rise, but it will cause problems. If the Fed remains stagnant, or waits for data to act, they will repeat the same mistakes, and the likelihood of entering a recession later this year will rise to 75%. Given the expected signal that the Fed will cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September, the actual probability is even smaller. By the end of the year, they may cut interest rates by 100 basis points. If the Fed takes action, the likelihood of a recession will be lower, but not zero.