Jinshi Digest: Institutional Outlook on UK Central Bank Interest Rate Resolution (2) - Interest Rate is likely to remain unchanged, QT pace may accelerate, and voting may appear more dovish.

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  1. Goldman Sachs: Expected to maintain the Interest Rate at 5.0% with a 7-2 voting ratio. The expected scale of APF reduction is 100 billion pounds. Continuous interest rate cuts from November this year to August next year will bring the Interest Rate to 3.00%, with a probability of 40%. 2. Danske Bank: Expected to remain unchanged in September and December, as service industry inflation and wage rises remain high, with a 25 basis point interest rate cut in November. It is expected to announce another 100 billion pound QT implementation. The euro is expected to rise slightly in the short term. 3. Barclays: Expected to maintain the Interest Rate at 5.0% with an 8-1 voting result, with a risk tendency of 6-3 voting ratio. The expected APF asset purchase tool will be reduced by 100 billion pounds. The Interest Rate will reach 3.75% by August 2025. 4. Fidelity Bank: Expected to maintain the Interest Rate at 5.0%, as the recovery of the economy and the continuous pump of wages will keep the Bank of England stable on the path of interest rate cuts, rather than accelerating. A 25 basis point interest rate cut is expected in November. 5. JPMorgan: Expected to maintain the Interest Rate at 5.0%, despite a series of relatively weak economic data released by the UK last week, the economy remains firmly in an expansionary state. The expected scale of the QT plan will be expanded to 120 billion pounds. 6. BNP Paribas: Expected to maintain the Interest Rate and guidance unchanged, with a 7-2 voting result. The expected pace of 1 trillion pound QT for the whole year will remain unchanged, but there is a significant risk of increasing it to 1.2 trillion pounds. The Interest Rate is expected to fall to 4.75% by the end of this year. 7. Canadian Imperial Commercial Bank: Expected to maintain the Interest Rate unchanged, and Ding Gra and Ramsden’s support for interest rate cuts will not be surprising. The APF reduction target is 100 billion pounds. Another interest rate cut is expected in November, with continuous interest rate cuts in the first half of next year.
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