Institution: Australian CPI data may further undermine hopes of a rate cut in advance

On November 25, Jin10 data reported that economists and currency markets have been gradually giving up expectations of a rate cut at the Reserve Bank of Australia’s first policy meeting in 2025, which is expected to take place in February next year. If the unexpectedly rising monthly inflation data for October is released on Wednesday, more economists may abandon the idea of a rate cut in February. Some major banks are still betting on this timeline. Ben Jarman, an economist at JPMorgan, said the CPI index is expected to decline by 0.3% on a month-on-month basis, which is consistent with the year-on-year rise of 0.1% to 2.2% in inflation rate. He added that the subsidies provided by the government to alleviate the pain caused by the rise in electricity prices are expected to have a significant drag on the economy.