Zhongjin: Paper demand recovery starting point, end of capacity cycle

Jinshi data news on December 17th, Zhongjin Company research report pointed out that looking forward to 2025, the demand for paper is expected to recover moderately under the strong policy boost of consumption, and the supply side is at the end of the capacity cycle. The supply and demand balance of boxboard paper and cultural paper is relatively easier to repair, and after the pulp stabilizes at the bottom, it may mainly fluctuate. In terms of stock selection, it tends to be a combination of safety margin and both offensive and defensive. In the medium and long term, the scarcity of enterprises with high-quality forest land and pulp resources is increasing. It is estimated that from 2023 to now, global new commodity pulp production capacity has exceeded 8 million tons (accounting for more than 10% of the commodity pulp production capacity in 2023). Looking ahead, the next large-scale commodity pulp project may be put into production by 2027, and there are currently no large projects with high certainty during this period; considering the continuous rise of the global economy, upstream wood chips and pulp resources may tend to be tense, and we are optimistic about enterprises with high-quality forest land and pulp resources.