The probability of Polymarket predicting the approval of strategic BTC reserves within 100 days of Trump taking office has dropped to 27%.

Odaily Star Daily News According to Polymarket, the probability of President Trump approving strategic BTC reserves within the first 100 days of his tenure has fallen to 27%, lower than the peak of 60% after Trump was elected. Currently, the amount of bets on this event has exceeded $1.5 million. Meanwhile, other prediction markets expect Trump to eventually accept BTC as a strategic reserve, joining the ranks of oil and gold. For example, Kalshi predicted that the probability of BTC reserves occurring in January 2026 reached a high point of 61% since December 21st, and is currently falling to 57%. In addition, it is expected to take time for Polymarket and Kalshi users to pass the strategic BTC reserve bill in Texas. The probability of Texas passing the bill before March next year is 10% on Polymarket and 24% on Kalshi.

BTC-1.59%
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