Shenwan Hongyuan: The conditions for a comprehensive Bull Market in A-shares are ripe, do not underestimate the resilience of the AI market in the short to medium term.

Jinshi data news on March 11th, Shenwan Hongyuan Research A-share strategy chief analyst Fu Jingtao said, “Currently, although there are still some deficiencies in the comprehensive Bull Market conditions of A-shares, they are becoming more complete. Next, we can focus on structural bull and prepare for a comprehensive bull.” Regarding the future A-share market, Fu Jingtao believes that although there are still some deficiencies, the conditions for a comprehensive Bull Market are becoming more complete. First of all, the continuous inflow of incremental funds into A-shares is the basis, which is already in place. In terms of market fundamentals, Fu Jingtao’s analysis stated that the clues for cyclical and structural improvements in the fundamentals are gradually becoming clear. On the one hand, medium-term cyclical improvement can also be expected, but the confirmation mode of the “economic bottom” has changed. "On the other hand, in terms of cyclical improvement, the mid-range manufacturing industry in 2026 may experience the first true supply clearance in history, and at that time, the demand growth rate required for the improvement of the supply-demand pattern of A-shares will drop significantly. Looking ahead, Fu Jingtao pointed out that the stable rise policy has sufficient reserves, and downward risks are all manageable. Loose macro Liquidity is the direction, so the interpretation of a structural bull market is based on the basic situation. In terms of the “Three Puzzle Pieces of the Bull Market,” in terms of fund supply and demand, we are waiting for further accumulation of Money Effect; in terms of cyclical fundamentals, there may be optimistic expectations of outperforming next year’s A-share profit capability in the second half of this year; at the same time, there may be even more optimistic expectations in 2026.