Crypto Macro News and Global Policy Updates

Xinda Futures research indicates that gold price movements are influenced by rising energy prices and interest rate expectations. The Middle East conflict has kept crude oil at elevated levels, intensifying inflation concerns in the market and suppressing gold prices. The market expects the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates unchanged, but Powell's assessment will impact subsequent policy decisions.

On March 22, after Trump issued a "48-hour ultimatum," crude oil prices rose. Sky founder Rune's multiple leveraged positions were profitable, with a structure including a 20x leveraged WTI crude oil long position with unrealized gains of approximately $155,000, a 7x leveraged Brent crude oil long position with unrealized gains of approximately $130,000, and total position value reaching approximately $11.55 million.

Ethereum Treasury Company Chairman Tom Lee maintained his year-end S&P 500 target of 7700 in an interview, viewing this as a conservative estimate. Despite the short-term impact of the war, it could benefit the U.S. economy in the long term, and the market may shift from crisis to opportunity. He pointed out that the market has already adjusted, and investors have completed their de-risking.

Iran launched a missile attack targeting around the Israeli nuclear research center late on March 21, causing at least 7 people to be seriously injured and 64 hospitalized. Israel's missile defense system was unable to fully intercept the missiles, worsening the tense situation. This attack is seen as retaliation for Israel's bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities, and geopolitical tensions continue to rise. The United Nations has stated that there are currently no radiation anomalies, but the risk still exists.

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) recently released an FAQ clarifying the rules for using cryptocurrencies as margin in derivatives markets, specifically setting capital deduction rates of 20% for Bitcoin and Ethereum and 2% for stablecoins. The pilot program will be limited to three coin types in the first three months, after which it will expand to additional cryptocurrencies and relax reporting requirements. Qualifying crypto assets may be used as margin, marking a gradual acceptance of blockchain assets within the U.S. financial system.

Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum this morning (22nd) demanding Iran fully open the Strait of Hormuz, otherwise the U.S. military will destroy Iran's power plants; following the announcement, Bitcoin plummeted rapidly to $68,000, with the Fear and Greed Index dropping to 9, indicating extreme market panic. (Background: Iran launched medium-range missiles at U.S. and British bases, missing but with a range of 4,000 kilometers, "double what intelligence estimated") (Context: Lai Ching-te approved: Nuclear Plants 2 and 3 "have conditions for restart," Taiwan's power shortage in the AI era cannot be sustained) Contents of this article Toggle Middle East conflict has been burning for over 4 weeks Bitcoin crashes to $68,000, liquidations of $236 million 48-hour countdown, market awaits three answers U.S. President Trump posted on his social media platform Truth Social at 7:44 AM this morning (22nd)

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has released guidance on a pilot program for crypto assets as collateral, allowing Bitcoin, Ethereum, and stablecoins to be used as margin. Futures brokers must comply with capital requirements and regulatory reporting obligations, and after three months can expand to other crypto assets as collateral. The guidance clarifies the use cases for crypto assets and derivatives clearing requirements.

Gate News reported that on March 22, Musk announced today that SpaceX and Tesla will jointly announce the TERAFAB project tomorrow at approximately 9:00 AM Beijing time, with a live broadcast on the X platform. The project aims to achieve computing power production capacity exceeding 1 terawatt annually, covering logic chips, memory chips, and packaging. Approximately 80% of the production capacity will be used for space applications, with approximately 20% for ground applications.

Citigroup has lowered its target prices for Bitcoin and Ethereum, indicating a cautious outlook on the medium-term prospects of the crypto market. The Bitcoin target price has been reduced from $143,000 to $112,000, while Ethereum's has been lowered from $4,304 to $3,175, mainly due to slow progress in U.S. cryptocurrency legislation. Although there is still room for upward movement over the next year, the market may remain volatile in the short term, with Ethereum's valuation becoming more reliant on fundamentals.

The Trump administration has begun discussions regarding the possibility of peace negotiations with Iran, despite expectations that fighting will continue for two to three weeks. Trump plans to gradually end the war, and envoys are considering diplomatic channels. However, the negotiation conditions proposed by Iran are quite stringent, including ceasefire and reparations.

Gate News: According to CME "FedWatch" data on March 21, the probability of the Federal Reserve raising rates by 25 basis points in April is 6.2%, while the probability of maintaining current rates is 93.8%.

Lawmakers and regulators are making progress on crypto policy, with a stablecoin yield proposal anticipated soon. The SEC and CFTC classified most crypto assets as non-securities, designating several as digital commodities.

Recent inflows into U.S. cryptocurrency spot ETFs have warmed, particularly with Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs recording net inflows over multiple consecutive days, indicating increased investor allocation appetite. Bitcoin ETF recorded approximately $199.4 million in net inflows on the 17th, marking the longest consecutive inflow streak in five months, with capital primarily flowing to major issuers such as BlackRock and Fidelity. This wave of reflux is mutually reinforcing with Bitcoin price appreciation, reflecting the market's preference among traditional capital for allocation to regulated products, providing stable support to spot prices.

Gate News Report: On March 21, according to Farside monitoring data, US Ethereum spot ETFs recorded cumulative net outflows of $60 million this week, while Solana spot ETFs recorded cumulative net inflows of $20.4 million.

Investment firm Coatue Management plans to launch a new fund focused on artificial intelligence and technology innovation, employing a "long-biased multi-strategy" approach. The new fund will allocate approximately 20% of capital to private companies, with an expected mid-year launch, and will close its existing long-only fund to direct new capital inflows.

March 21 — Intelligence agencies are monitoring the movements of Iran's new Supreme Leader, Mujtaba. During Nowruz, he did not make a public appearance and only issued a written statement, sparking speculation about his health and authority. Although Israel considers him a target for strikes, intelligence indicates that Mujtaba is still alive, but there is no direct evidence that he is issuing orders. U.S. and Israeli officials believe the Iranian regime is facing a command crisis, but there are no signs of collapse.

Grayscale Investments has filed for a Grayscale HYPE ETF, aiming to track the digital asset HYPE. The fund may include staking rewards but awaits SEC approval to proceed, reflecting a broader push for diversified crypto investment products.

Gate News reported that on March 21, water resource management company Ecolab Inc. announced it will acquire CoolIT Systems from KKR for approximately $4.75 billion in cash to capitalize on the growing demand for liquid cooling technology in AI-driven data centers. Technology companies are increasing their investments in AI infrastructure, driving the industry's shift from traditional air cooling methods to more efficient liquid cooling systems to handle higher chip density and power loads.

CFTC permits Bitcoin, Ethereum, and stablecoins as margin collateral with strict valuation haircuts and risk controls applied. Stablecoins receive lower capital charges than BTC and ETH, reflecting reduced volatility in margin calculations. Firms must meet reporting, cybersecurity, and

Gate News reported that on March 21, U.S. Central Command Commander Brad Cooper stated in a video that the United States bombed Iranian coastal facilities threatening shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Cooper said the U.S. struck Iranian underground facilities and anti-ship missiles, while also targeting intelligence support systems and radar equipment.