Monetary Policy

Gate News update: On April 8, the Federal Reserve meeting minutes (FOMC Minutes) showed that several participants further pushed back their assessment of when rate cuts would happen to a more distant future.

The Federal Reserve’s March meeting minutes will be released tonight, as tensions in the conflict between Iran and the U.S. escalate and the direction of interest rates becomes uncertain. This article will explain the key focus of the minutes, the conditions for rate hikes, and the impact on the crypto market.

Gate News message: On April 8, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the March monetary policy meeting at 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on April 9. Against the backdrop of intensifying conflict in the Middle East and an increasingly complex market environment, this document will reveal how Federal Reserve officials assess supply shocks and inflationary pressures, as well as the framework they use to judge the balance of risks.

After the U.S. and Iran reached a ceasefire agreement, Bitcoin quickly rebounded to $72,000, indicating how sensitive the market is to macro events. However, derivatives market data shows that this rally was mainly driven by easing hedging sentiment rather than new inflows, and that implied volatility in the options market has fallen, suggesting that near-term risks are being released. The next few days will be critical: a large amount of Bitcoin and Ethereum options are expected to expire, which could influence the direction of the market.

Gate News update, April 8, according to analysis by the finance website Investinglive, after the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, gold and silver prices rose. The analysis said that before the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran conflict, gold and silver positions relied mainly on leveraged trading; the negative impact brought by the conflict led to leveraged selling, causing gold and silver prices to fall. After the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, improved market sentiment drove a rebound in gold and silver. In addition, the U.S.-Iran ceasefire also means that major central banks may not need to be overly aggressive in raising interest rates, which is one of the reasons for the rebound in precious metals.

Based on data from the CME FedWatch tool, the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at the upcoming meeting is 99.5%, effectively eliminating the risk of further rate hikes. This expectation is driven by multiple macro factors, including slowing inflation and stable economic growth. For high-risk assets such as Bitcoin, keeping rates unchanged helps improve market sentiment, making investors’ expectations of rate cuts the next focus.

From 23:30 to 23:45 (UTC) on 2026-04-07, the BTC price rapidly fell within 15 minutes, with a return of -1.03%. The price range was 71,905.7 to 72,760.5 USDT, and the amplitude was 1.17%. Market attention remained high; intraday volatility significantly increased. Trading volumes across major platforms briefly surged, indicating that selling pressure and risk-avoidance sentiment had permeated mainstream cryptocurrencies. The main drivers of this deviation were the continued tightening of macro liquidity under the Fed’s hawkish signals and a concentrated adjustment in the BTC derivatives market. The Fed’s interest rate in March 2026

There is uncertainty regarding Kevin Walsh’s nomination for Federal Reserve chair, because Republican senators oppose moving forward with the nomination, especially as Powell is still under investigation. New York Fed President Williams said this uncertainty does not affect the Federal Reserve, and Powell can continue serving in his position before Walsh is confirmed.

French banking analyst Kit Juckes issued a report stating that if the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged this year, the U.S. dollar will fluctuate. The market expects G10 central banks to raise rates, but Sweden’s economic growth forecast is only slightly higher than that of the United States, which limits the dollar’s appreciation. If the Federal Reserve cuts rates, the dollar could fall.

Gate News message, April 7, the Federal Reserve’s Williams said that the monetary policy can be adjusted if necessary; for now, it may be observed for the time being. He expects this year’s GDP growth to be 2% to 2.5%, with the unemployment rate remaining stable. Williams noted that the labor market situation is quite complex and expects that core inflation will fall later this year.

The negative correlation between Bitcoin and global central bank monetary policy suggests that institutional capital has already positioned itself ahead of a potential easing cycle. In the recent spot ETF net inflows have hit a new high, but the market remains choppy and unstable, with weak demand. Corporate allocation has slowed, volatility in the options market has increased, and traders are more inclined to add downside protection.

The Bank of Korea and France’s foreign exchange bank held a seminar in South Korea on digital assets and climate-related issues, discussing the impact of central bank digital currency and stablecoins on the financial system. During the meeting, countries discussed how to balance financial innovation and regulation, showing the global emphasis on collaborative research in digital finance.

BlueBay Chief Investment Officer Mark Dowding reported that Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is focused on economic growth and may delay the central bank’s normalization of interest rates. He noted that a dovish policy could lead to concerns about inflation and put pressure on Japan’s government bond yield curve, with expectations that the yield curve for 10- to 30-year government bonds will continue to flatten further.

This week, the U.S. will release four macroeconomic data points, including the FOMC meeting minutes and CPI data, which could determine whether Bitcoin can hold the $67k level. Bitcoin is currently trading in a range around $69k, with a 23% decline year-to-date. Market sentiment is subdued, and institutional capital support is limited, resulting in weaker demand—making this a key moment in the long-versus-short battle.

Bitcoin gives back its gains on April 7, trading at $68,800. A U.S. SEC “safe harbor” proposal for crypto has been submitted for review by the White House. Argentina’s President Milei has been accused of having multiple calls with LIBRA’s founder, sparking a scandal. Bitcoin’s market volatility is high; it’s advised to control leverage to prevent large-scale liquidations.

Gate News message: On April 7, Federal Reserve officials Hamek and Goolsby warned that the inflation situation is severe and could even get worse. The two officials believe that the inflation problem is more serious than the job market, implying support for tightening monetary policy. In an interview, Goolsby rated the inflation outlook as "orange," while Hamek said that inflation has been above its target level for five consecutive years, and that the current situation is "absolutely a more vivid, brighter orange."

The market is concerned about the impending military action, causing U.S. crude oil (WTI) prices to break above $112 per barrel and the stock market to rise slightly. Bitcoin briefly climbed to $70,351, then subsequently fell to $68K, and Ether also dropped below $2,100. Investors are watching the Federal Reserve meeting minutes and the inflation indicator PCE data, as the economic outlook remains unclear.

Gate News announcement, April 6, Wells Fargo adjusted its forecast for the Federal Reserve (U.S. Federal Reserve System) 2026 interest rate policy, expecting the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged in 2026, whereas the prior forecast was for two rate cuts this year.

Gate News, April 6, Citibank adjusts its expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, forecasting that the timing for the first rate cut will move back from the previously expected June to September.